Santa Clara 0-0 Belenenses – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Santa Clara at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santa Clara vs Belenenses encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio de São Miguel plays host to Santa Clara versus Belenenses in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Santa Clara (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estádio de São Miguel this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Belenenses's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Belenenses, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Belenenses have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Santa Clara's favour (1.70 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Santa Clara, 1 for Belenenses and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Belenenses winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Santa Clara — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Belenenses — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 62% versus Belenenses 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 62% | Belenenses 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.68 xG and Belenenses 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 1.138 / defence 1.193 | Belenenses attack 0.528 / defence 1.448. League average goals — home 1.019 / away 1.277. Belenenses bring a strong defensive rating of 1.448 — this is suppressing Santa Clara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Santa Clara games / 26 Belenenses games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 56% | Draw 29% | Belenenses 15%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | Belenenses 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Santa Clara (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Santa Clara as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Santa Clara 70% | Belenenses 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Belenenses | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 56% | Draw 29% | Belenenses 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Santa Clara 1.68 / Belenenses 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 1.138 / def 1.193 | Belenenses attack 0.528 / def 1.448 | league avg home 1.019 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Belenenses xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Belenenses kick off?
Santa Clara vs Belenenses kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Belenenses?
Santa Clara 0 - 0 Belenenses.
Where is Santa Clara vs Belenenses being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Belenenses part of?
Santa Clara vs Belenenses is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Belenenses?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 56% chance of winning, Belenenses a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Belenenses?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Santa Clara and Belenenses will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Belenenses have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Belenenses?
Record (1 meetings): Santa Clara 0W | Draws 0 | Belenenses 1W.
What form are Santa Clara and Belenenses in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Belenenses (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Santa Clara's attack rating (1.14) and Belenenses's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Belenenses's attack (0.53x) against Santa Clara's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
56%
1.80
29%
3.42
15%
6.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.49
0.81
Belenenses xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
6.60
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
3%
35.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.3 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Belenenses?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Belenenses expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Santa Clara and 0.81 for Belenenses, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Belenenses?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Santa Clara come into this having played 26 games, going 7W 9D 10L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Belenenses sit at 0.65 PPG from 26 outings (3W 8D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Belenenses is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santa Clara carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Belenenses — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Santa Clara's home form reads 6W 4D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Santa Clara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Belenenses have taken 0.38 points per game from 13 outings (0W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santa Clara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Santa Clara are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Belenenses are on 0.58 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Santa Clara have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
Belenenses
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Belenenses in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 7W 9D 10L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while Belenenses have gone 3W 8D 15L in their last 26 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Belenenses away?
Santa Clara's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.69 PPG; Belenenses away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Santa Clara
1
Draws
1
Belenenses
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Belenenses?
From 2 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 0, Belenenses have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Belenenses last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Santa Clara 0-0 Belenenses.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Belenenses?
Belenenses have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 62%, Belenenses 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Santa Clara) and 15% (Belenenses).
On the defensive side: Belenenses in 69%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Belenenses away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Belenenses?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 31% of Belenenses's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Belenenses usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Santa Clara's recent games and 15% of Belenenses's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Belenenses tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Belenenses in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Santa Clara's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara and Belenenses finished level at 0-0 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.68 xG and Belenenses 0.81 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Santa Clara fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Belenenses landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 1.14 / defence 1.19 against Belenenses attack 0.53 / defence 1.45, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 56% | Draw 29% | Belenenses 15%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 62%, Belenenses 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Belenenses's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Belenenses (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.