Moreirense 1-0 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Moreirense at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Moreirense vs Chaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chaves make the trip to Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas to face Moreirense in Primeira Liga (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Moreirense have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Moreirense have posted 4W 2D 3L from their last 9 home games — 1.56 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 9 home games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chaves's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Chaves's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Moreirense's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Moreirense edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Moreirense 2–1 Chaves — a Moreirense win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Moreirense half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Chaves half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 40% versus Chaves 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 45% | Chaves 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.72 xG and Chaves 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.910 / defence 1.114 | Chaves attack 0.827 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.248. Chaves's defence rating of 1.248 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Moreirense's projected output up. Data: built from Moreirense's last 20 games and Chaves's last 54.
Result probabilities: Moreirense 50% | Draw 25% | Chaves 25%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 2.00 | Draw 3.99 | Chaves 4.03. Moreirense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Moreirense as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Moreirense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Moreirense's last 9 home games and Chaves's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Moreirense 56% (last 9 home games) | Chaves 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 21 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 50% | Draw 25% | Chaves 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Moreirense 1.72 / Chaves 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 0.910 / def 1.114 | Chaves attack 0.827 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Chaves xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Moreirense vs Chaves FAQs
What time does Moreirense vs Chaves kick off?
Moreirense vs Chaves kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Chaves?
Moreirense 1 - 0 Chaves.
Where is Moreirense vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Chaves part of?
Moreirense vs Chaves is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 21) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 50% chance of winning, Chaves a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Moreirense and Chaves will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Moreirense vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Moreirense's attack rating (0.91) and Chaves's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chaves's attack (0.83x) against Moreirense's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Moreirense's last 20 games and Chaves's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.99
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.87
1.15
Chaves xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
4%
22.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Moreirense vs Chaves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.15 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Chaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Moreirense come into this having played 20 games, going 9W 5D 6L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Chaves sit at 0.70 PPG from 20 outings (3W 5D 12L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Moreirense carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Chaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Moreirense's home form reads 4W 2D 3L across their last 9 home games, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Chaves have taken 0.56 points per game from their last 9 away games (1W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Moreirense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Moreirense are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.00 scored and 2.30 conceded.
Defensively: Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Blended
Chaves
Blended
Moreirense (Home) vs Chaves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Moreirense
Blended
Chaves
Blended
❓ Moreirense vs Chaves Form FAQs
What form are Moreirense and Chaves in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 9W 5D 6L in their last 20 games (1.60 PPG), while Chaves have gone 3W 5D 12L in their last 20 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or Chaves away?
Moreirense's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.56 PPG; Chaves away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Moreirense or Chaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Chaves in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Moreirense have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Moreirense have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Chaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Moreirense
0
Draws
1
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Moreirense vs Chaves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Chaves?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Moreirense have won 3, Chaves have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Chaves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2024: Moreirense 1-0 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between Moreirense and Chaves?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Moreirense see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 56%, Chaves 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Moreirense) and 67% (Chaves). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Moreirense keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Chaves in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Moreirense vs Chaves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Moreirense and Chaves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Moreirense's recent matches and 44% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Moreirense and Chaves matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Moreirense's matches and 67% of Chaves's.
Do Moreirense and Chaves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Moreirense's recent matches and 67% of Chaves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Moreirense edge out Chaves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense beat Chaves 1-0 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.72 xG and Chaves 1.15 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chaves landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.91 / defence 1.11 against Chaves attack 0.83 / defence 1.25, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 50% | Draw 25% | Chaves 25%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 45%, Chaves 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chaves's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.70. That form edge translated into the three points. Moreirense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Chaves (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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