GIL Vicente 0-1 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIL Vicente vs Vizela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIL Vicente and Vizela meet at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
GIL Vicente's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — GIL Vicente are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Vizela have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Vizela have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in GIL Vicente's favour (1.20 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for GIL Vicente, 1 for Vizela and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2023, ended GIL Vicente 0–1 Vizela — a Vizela win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
GIL Vicente — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Vizela — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 50% versus Vizela 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 46% | Vizela 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.86 xG and Vizela 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.026 / defence 0.912 | Vizela attack 0.785 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.212. Vizela's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from GIL Vicente's last 54 games and Vizela's last 54.
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 61% | Draw 22% | Vizela 17%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 1.65 | Draw 4.50 | Vizela 5.85. The model has a clear lean to GIL Vicente (61%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (GIL Vicente's last 10 home games and Vizela's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: GIL Vicente 60% (last 10 home games) | Vizela 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 21 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 61% | Draw 22% | Vizela 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG GIL Vicente 1.86 / Vizela 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.026 / def 0.912 | Vizela attack 0.785 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Vizela xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GIL Vicente vs Vizela FAQs
What time does GIL Vicente vs Vizela kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Vizela kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Vizela?
GIL Vicente 0 - 1 Vizela.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Vizela part of?
GIL Vicente vs Vizela is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 21) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 61% chance of winning, Vizela a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both GIL Vicente and Vizela will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will GIL Vicente vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
GIL Vicente's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Vizela's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — Vizela's attack (0.79x) against GIL Vicente's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from GIL Vicente's last 54 games and Vizela's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.50
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.73
0.87
Vizela xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
3%
37.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GIL Vicente vs Vizela Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.87 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Vizela?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIL Vicente's recent record stands at 16W 11D 27L from 54 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Vizela, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 27L across 54 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for GIL Vicente against 0.98 for Vizela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, GIL Vicente have managed 10W 10D 6L from their last 26 home games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — GIL Vicente are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vizela's away record stands at 7W 7D 12L across their last 26 away games, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 0.96 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Vizela
Blended
GIL Vicente (Home) vs Vizela (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GIL Vicente
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ GIL Vicente vs Vizela Form FAQs
What form are GIL Vicente and Vizela in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 16W 11D 27L in their last 54 games (1.09 PPG), while Vizela have gone 13W 14D 27L in their last 54 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Vizela away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.54 PPG; Vizela away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between GIL Vicente and Vizela, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 13 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Vizela have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vizela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
GIL Vicente
3
Draws
2
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ GIL Vicente vs Vizela H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Vizela?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, GIL Vicente have won 1, Vizela have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Vizela last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2024: GIL Vicente 0-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Vizela?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 46%, Vizela 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for GIL Vicente and 38% for Vizela.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Vizela in 31%; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 27% of games; Vizela in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GIL Vicente vs Vizela Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GIL Vicente and Vizela matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 42% of Vizela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are GIL Vicente and Vizela matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 38% of Vizela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Vizela defy the odds to beat GIL Vicente 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vizela beat GIL Vicente 0-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.86 xG and Vizela 0.87 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.03 / defence 0.91 against Vizela attack 0.79 / defence 1.17, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 61% | Draw 22% | Vizela 17%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Vizela win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 46%, Vizela 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vizela's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.09 PPG, Vizela 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vizela win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Vizela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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