Vitória SC 0-0 Belenenses – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vitória SC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitória SC vs Belenenses encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitória SC host Belenenses at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitória SC stand at 1W 2D 1L from 4 Primeira Liga matches — 1.25 PPG. Last five: L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Vitória SC have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Belenenses — All Games: 0W 1D 3L from 4 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Belenenses have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Vitória SC have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.25 vs 0.25) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Vitória SC in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Belenenses in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Vitória SC 0% | Belenenses 50%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vitória SC 25% | Belenenses 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitória SC 1.49 xG and Belenenses 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitória SC attack 1.161 / defence 0.986 | Belenenses attack 0.645 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 1.122. Belenenses bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Vitória SC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Vitória SC games / 4 Belenenses games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitória SC 52% | Draw 33% | Belenenses 14%. Fair-value odds: Vitória SC 1.92 | Draw 3.03 | Belenenses 7.14. Vitória SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vitória SC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitória SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Vitória SC 0% | Belenenses 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitória SC vs Belenenses | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitória SC 52% | Draw 33% | Belenenses 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Vitória SC 1.49 / Belenenses 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Vitória SC attack 1.161 / def 0.986 | Belenenses attack 0.645 / def 1.292 | league avg home 0.993 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Vitória SC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Vitória SC xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Belenenses xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitória SC vs Belenenses kick off?
Vitória SC vs Belenenses kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What was the final score in Vitória SC vs Belenenses?
Vitória SC 0 - 0 Belenenses.
Where is Vitória SC vs Belenenses being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What competition is Vitória SC vs Belenenses part of?
Vitória SC vs Belenenses is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vitória SC vs Belenenses?
Our statistical model gives Vitória SC a 52% chance of winning, Belenenses a 14% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Vitória SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitória SC vs Belenenses?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Vitória SC and Belenenses will score (BTTS).
Will Vitória SC vs Belenenses have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Belenenses?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitória SC and Belenenses in?
Vitória SC (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.25 | L5 L-D-W-D. Belenenses (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vitória SC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Belenenses's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Belenenses's attack versus Vitória SC's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitória SC Win
52%
1.91
33%
3.00
14%
6.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Vitória SC xG
Total xG
2.20
0.71
Belenenses xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
6.97
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
3%
30.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 11.7 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitória SC vs Belenenses?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Vitória SC and Belenenses expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Vitória SC and 0.71 for Belenenses, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitória SC vs Belenenses?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vitória SC come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 2D 1L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Vitória SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Belenenses sit at 0.25 PPG from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Belenenses, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vitória SC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Belenenses — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Vitória SC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game recently; Belenenses are on 0.50 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitória SC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Vitória SC have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitória SC
Early Season
Belenenses
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitória SC and Belenenses in coming into this match?
Vitória SC have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Belenenses have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
Have Vitória SC or Belenenses been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitória SC have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Belenenses in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitória SC and Belenenses runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vitória SC
1
Draws
1
Belenenses
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Belenenses?
From 2 meetings on record, Vitória SC have won 0, Belenenses have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitória SC and Belenenses last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2022, when Belenenses 1-0 Vitória SC.
Who has won more matches between Vitória SC and Belenenses?
Belenenses have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitória SC tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Vitória SC 0% BTTS, Belenenses 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Vitória SC and 25% for Belenenses.
On the defensive side: Vitória SC keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Vitória SC have failed to score in 75% of games; Belenenses in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitória SC home games / Belenenses away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitória SC play Belenenses?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Vitória SC's recent matches and 50% of Belenenses's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitória SC vs Belenenses usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Vitória SC's recent games and 25% of Belenenses's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitória SC and Belenenses tend to score early?
Vitória SC have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Belenenses in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vitória SC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 5, as Vitória SC and Belenenses drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitória SC 1.49 xG and Belenenses 0.71 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vitória SC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitória SC attack 1.16 / defence 0.99 against Belenenses attack 0.65 / defence 1.29, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitória SC 52% | Draw 33% | Belenenses 14%, with Vitória SC to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitória SC 25%, Belenenses 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitória SC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Belenenses's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitória SC arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vitória SC managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Belenenses conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.