GIL Vicente 2-1 Nacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Nacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIL Vicente host Nacional at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
GIL Vicente — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — GIL Vicente are significantly better at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nacional stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Nacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Nacional have posted 0W 2D 4L from 6 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — GIL Vicente at 0.70 PPG versus Nacional's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
GIL Vicente in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Nacional in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 64% versus Nacional 18%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 64% | Nacional 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.58 xG and Nacional 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.068 / defence 1.032 | Nacional attack 0.531 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.108. Data: 46 GIL Vicente games / 11 Nacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 61% | Draw 25% | Nacional 14%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Nacional 7.14. The model has a clear lean to GIL Vicente (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIL Vicente at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 50% | Nacional 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Nacional | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 61% | Draw 25% | Nacional 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 36% | xG GIL Vicente 1.58 / Nacional 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.068 / def 1.032 | Nacional attack 0.531 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (61%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Nacional xG
36%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Nacional kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Nacional kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Nacional?
GIL Vicente 2 - 1 Nacional.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Nacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Nacional part of?
GIL Vicente vs Nacional is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Nacional?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 61% chance of winning, Nacional a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Nacional?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both GIL Vicente and Nacional will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Nacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Nacional?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIL Vicente and Nacional in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Nacional (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about GIL Vicente vs Nacional?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (1.07) and Nacional's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nacional's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
61%
1.64
25%
4.03
14%
7.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.19
0.61
Nacional xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
7.12
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
54%
1.83
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
33%
3.00
3%
34.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 10.8 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Nacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Nacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.61 for Nacional, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Nacional?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 2W 4D 5L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nacional's form line: 2W 3D 6L from 11 games, 0.82 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Nacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIL Vicente on 0.91 PPG, Nacional on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — GIL Vicente are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Nacional have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nacional's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Nacional are on 0.55 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: GIL Vicente have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Nacional in 18%.
Defensively: Nacional in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Nacional
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Nacional in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Nacional have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Nacional away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.60 PPG; Nacional away: 0.20 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Nacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Nacional in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
GIL Vicente go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2025, when GIL Vicente won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIL Vicente's record when hosting Nacional specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
GIL Vicente
0
Draws
0
Nacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Nacional?
From 4 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 4, Nacional have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Nacional last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when GIL Vicente 2-1 Nacional.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Nacional?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — GIL Vicente 60% BTTS, Nacional 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 60% for GIL Vicente and 0% for Nacional.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Nacional in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Nacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Nacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 0% of Nacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Nacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 0% of Nacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Nacional tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Nacional in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GIL Vicente edge out Nacional 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Nacional 2-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.58 xG and Nacional 0.61 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.07 / defence 1.03 against Nacional attack 0.53 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 61% | Draw 25% | Nacional 14%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 64%, Nacional 18%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Nacional's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 0.91 PPG, Nacional 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. Nacional (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.