FC Porto 3-1 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Porto at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Porto vs Casa Pia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Porto and Casa Pia meet at Estádio Do Dragão in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Porto have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC Porto, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Porto at Estádio Do Dragão this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Casa Pia (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. FC Porto's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Casa Pia's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Porto lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 2–1 with FC Porto winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FC Porto — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Porto 48% versus Casa Pia 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Porto 52% | Casa Pia 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Porto 1.30 xG and Casa Pia 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Porto attack 0.863 / defence 0.838 | Casa Pia attack 0.802 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.280. Data: 46 FC Porto games / 46 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Porto 47% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 25%. Fair-value odds: FC Porto 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Casa Pia 4.00. FC Porto hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Porto are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Porto if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Porto 50% | Casa Pia 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Porto vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Do Dragão • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Porto 47% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG FC Porto 1.30 / Casa Pia 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: FC Porto attack 0.863 / def 0.838 | Casa Pia attack 0.802 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: FC Porto (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
FC Porto xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Casa Pia xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Porto vs Casa Pia kick off?
FC Porto vs Casa Pia kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Estádio Do Dragão.
What was the final score in FC Porto vs Casa Pia?
FC Porto 3 - 1 Casa Pia.
Where is FC Porto vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Dragão.
What competition is FC Porto vs Casa Pia part of?
FC Porto vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win FC Porto vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives FC Porto a 47% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Porto the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both FC Porto and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will FC Porto vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Porto and Casa Pia?
Record (2 meetings): FC Porto 1W | Draws 1 | Casa Pia 0W.
What form are FC Porto and Casa Pia in?
FC Porto (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Porto's attack at 0.86x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.80x) against FC Porto's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Porto Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.51
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
FC Porto xG
Total xG
2.16
0.86
Casa Pia xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
7%
14.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Porto vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FC Porto and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for FC Porto and 0.86 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Porto vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, FC Porto have picked up 2.46 PPG on a 36W 5D 5L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Porto is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Casa Pia's form line: 14W 12D 20L from 46 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Porto are the form team by 1.29 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Casa Pia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Porto have posted 2.50 PPG from 22 outings (18W 1D 3L).
On the road, Casa Pia have gone 7W 4D 11L from 22 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Porto come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Porto are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 0.87 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Porto
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Porto and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
FC Porto have gone 36W 5D 5L in their last 46 games (2.46 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Porto at home or Casa Pia away?
FC Porto's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Porto at home: 2.50 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.14 PPG.
Have FC Porto or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Porto won 4-0 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Porto have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
FC Porto
1
Draws
1
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Porto and Casa Pia?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Porto have won 6, Casa Pia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Porto and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Casa Pia 2-1 FC Porto.
Who has won more matches between FC Porto and Casa Pia?
FC Porto have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Porto are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Porto 50%, Casa Pia 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (FC Porto) and 41% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: FC Porto keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Casa Pia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Porto home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Porto play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Porto's recent matches and 41% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Porto vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of FC Porto's recent games and 41% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Porto and Casa Pia tend to score early?
FC Porto have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Porto cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Porto beat Casa Pia 3-1 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 1.30 xG and Casa Pia 0.86 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Porto beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 0.86 / defence 0.84 against Casa Pia attack 0.80 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Porto 47% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 25%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 52%, Casa Pia 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Porto's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Casa Pia's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Casa Pia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.