Farense 1-0 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Farense face GIL Vicente.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Farense host GIL Vicente at Estádio de São Lúis in Primeira Liga (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 6 January 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Farense have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Farense have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 home games (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
GIL Vicente — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
GIL Vicente's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 0D 10L (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Farense at 1.20 PPG versus GIL Vicente's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Farense in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
GIL Vicente in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 47% versus GIL Vicente 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 60% | GIL Vicente 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.83 xG and GIL Vicente 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.874 / defence 0.975 | GIL Vicente attack 0.837 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.211. GIL Vicente's defence rating of 1.361 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Farense's projected output up. Data: built from Farense's last 15 games and GIL Vicente's last 49.
Result probabilities: Farense 57% | Draw 23% | GIL Vicente 20%. Fair-value odds: Farense 1.75 | Draw 4.39 | GIL Vicente 4.96. The model has a clear lean to Farense (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Farense as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Farense's last 8 home games and GIL Vicente's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Farense 38% (last 8 home games) | GIL Vicente 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 16 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Saturday 6 January 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 57% | Draw 23% | GIL Vicente 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Farense 1.83 / GIL Vicente 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.874 / def 0.975 | GIL Vicente attack 0.837 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Farense (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Farense xG
Expected Goals
0.99
GIL Vicente xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Farense vs GIL Vicente FAQs
What time does Farense vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Farense vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 6 January 2024 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs GIL Vicente?
Farense 1 - 0 GIL Vicente.
Where is Farense vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs GIL Vicente part of?
Farense vs GIL Vicente is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 16) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 57% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Farense and GIL Vicente will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Farense vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Farense's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Farense's last 15 games and GIL Vicente's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.39
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Farense xG
Total xG
2.82
0.99
GIL Vicente xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
3%
30.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Farense vs GIL Vicente Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Farense and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Farense and 0.99 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs GIL Vicente?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Farense come into this having played 15 games, going 5W 3D 7L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.00 PPG from 15 outings (4W 3D 8L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Farense on 1.20 PPG, GIL Vicente on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Farense's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across their last 7 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 0.00 points per game from their last 7 away games (0W 0D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIL Vicente's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Farense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Farense are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.73 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: GIL Vicente in 67%.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
Farense (Home) vs GIL Vicente (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Farense
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Farense vs GIL Vicente Form FAQs
What form are Farense and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or GIL Vicente away?
Farense's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 1.57 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from January 2024. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
GIL Vicente have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Farense's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Farense
0
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Farense vs GIL Vicente H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and GIL Vicente?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Farense have won 1, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Farense and GIL Vicente last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2025: GIL Vicente 1-0 Farense.
Who has won more matches between Farense and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 43%, GIL Vicente 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Farense and 86% for GIL Vicente. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Farense keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Farense have failed to score in 29% of games; GIL Vicente in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Farense vs GIL Vicente Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Farense and GIL Vicente matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Farense's games and 71% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Farense and GIL Vicente matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Farense's matches and 86% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Farense and GIL Vicente matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Farense's recent matches and 71% of GIL Vicente's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Farense edge out GIL Vicente 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Farense beat GIL Vicente 1-0 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.83 xG and GIL Vicente 0.99 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Farense fell 0.8 short of their projected output. GIL Vicente landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.87 / defence 0.97 against GIL Vicente attack 0.84 / defence 1.36, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 57% | Draw 23% | GIL Vicente 20%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 60%, GIL Vicente 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Farense 1.20 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Farense win broke the near-deadlock. Farense (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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