Farense 0-3 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs Casa Pia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Casa Pia travel to Estádio de São Lúis to take on Farense. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 August 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Casa Pia stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Casa Pia haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Casa Pia away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.26 xG and Casa Pia 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Casa Pia attack 0.865 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.101. Data: 0 Farense games / 34 Casa Pia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Farense 40% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 32%. Fair-value odds: Farense 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Casa Pia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Farense as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Farense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 40% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Farense 1.26 / Casa Pia 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Casa Pia attack 0.865 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Farense (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Casa Pia xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs Casa Pia kick off?
Farense vs Casa Pia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Casa Pia?
Farense 0 - 3 Casa Pia.
Where is Farense vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Casa Pia part of?
Farense vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 40% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Farense and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Casa Pia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Farense and Casa Pia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Casa Pia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Farense's attack at 0.85x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Casa Pia's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.59
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Farense xG
Total xG
2.36
1.10
Casa Pia xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Farense and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Farense and 1.10 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Pre-Season
Casa Pia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Farense and Casa Pia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Aug 2023, when Casa Pia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Farense's record when hosting Casa Pia specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Farense
2
Draws
1
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Casa Pia?
From 4 meetings on record, Farense have won 1, Casa Pia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Farense and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2025, when Farense 0-0 Casa Pia.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Casa Pia run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Farense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat Farense 0-3 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.26 xG and Casa Pia 1.10 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Farense fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Casa Pia outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Casa Pia attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 40% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 32%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Casa Pia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.