Famalicao 0-1 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sporting CP (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Famalicao face Sporting CP.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho plays host to Famalicao versus Sporting CP in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Tuesday 16 April 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Form
Famalicao (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Famalicao's home record at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sporting CP have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Sporting CP's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sporting CP are 1.50 PPG clear of Famalicao in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (2.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Famalicao have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Sporting CP in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Sporting CP have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Famalicao's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Sporting CP winning.
It is worth noting that Sporting CP have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sporting CP — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 52% versus Sporting CP 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 50% | Sporting CP 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.11 xG and Sporting CP 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.931 / defence 1.097 | Sporting CP attack 1.624 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.274. Sporting CP have an above-average attack strength of 1.624 — the away xG of 2.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Famalicao games / 62 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 17% | Draw 19% | Sporting CP 63%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 5.88 | Draw 5.26 | Sporting CP 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.11 / 2.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 80% | Sporting CP 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Apr 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 17% | Draw 19% | Sporting CP 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 60% | xG Famalicao 1.11 / Sporting CP 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.931 / def 1.097 | Sporting CP attack 1.624 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
2.27
Sporting CP xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Sporting CP kick off?
Famalicao vs Sporting CP kicked off at 20:15 on Tuesday 16 April 2024 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Famalicao 0 - 1 Sporting CP.
Where is Famalicao vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Sporting CP part of?
Famalicao vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 17% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 63% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Famalicao and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Sporting CP?
Record (5 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 1 | Sporting CP 4W.
What form are Famalicao and Sporting CP in?
Famalicao (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Sporting CP (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Sporting CP's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Sporting CP's attack (1.62x) against Famalicao's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 2.27.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
17%
5.78
19%
5.15
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.7%
Away win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Famalicao xG
Total xG
3.38
2.27
Sporting CP xG
5.78
17%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
10%
9.68
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
2%
55.92
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Famalicao and 2.27 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 21W 16D 25L from 62 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Sporting CP, meanwhile, have gone 47W 7D 8L across 62 games — 2.39 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sporting CP by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Famalicao heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 14W 6D 10L from 30 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sporting CP's away record stands at 20W 4D 6L across 30 trips, a 2.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.48 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Current Season
Sporting CP
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 21W 16D 25L in their last 62 games (1.27 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 47W 7D 8L in their last 62 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.60 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.13 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sporting CP go into this on the back of 9 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sporting CP — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Famalicao
1
Draws
9
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Sporting CP?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 0, Sporting CP have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Sporting CP 1-0 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 50%, Sporting CP 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Famalicao and 67% for Sporting CP. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sporting CP in 37%; Famalicao have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Sporting CP?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Famalicao's recent matches and 53% of Sporting CP's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Famalicao's matches and 67% of Sporting CP's.
Do Famalicao and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Famalicao 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Famalicao 0-1 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.11 xG and Sporting CP 2.27 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Famalicao fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sporting CP landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Sporting CP attack 1.62 / defence 0.81, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 17% | Draw 19% | Sporting CP 63%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 50%, Sporting CP 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sporting CP's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.