Famalicao 1-4 Alverca – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Famalicao at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Alverca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal de Famalicao plays host to Famalicao versus Alverca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Monday 12 October 2026 at 19:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Famalicao have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Famalicao's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Famalicao are significantly better at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao than their overall form suggests.
Alverca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alverca have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alverca's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Famalicao, 0.90 for Alverca — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Famalicao lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Famalicao winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Alverca — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 39% versus Alverca 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 39% | Alverca 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.25 xG and Alverca 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.881 / defence 0.846 | Alverca attack 0.976 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.309. Data: 41 Famalicao games / 41 Alverca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 40% | Draw 28% | Alverca 32%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Alverca 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 50% | Alverca 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Alverca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao • Kick-off: Monday 12 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 40% | Draw 28% | Alverca 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Famalicao 1.25 / Alverca 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.881 / def 0.846 | Alverca attack 0.976 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Alverca xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Alverca kick off?
Famalicao vs Alverca kicked off at 19:15 on Monday 12 October 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Alverca?
Famalicao 1 - 4 Alverca.
Where is Famalicao vs Alverca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What competition is Famalicao vs Alverca part of?
Famalicao vs Alverca is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Alverca?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 40% chance of winning, Alverca a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Alverca?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Famalicao and Alverca will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Alverca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Alverca?
Record (2 meetings): Famalicao 1W | Draws 0 | Alverca 1W.
What form are Famalicao and Alverca in?
Famalicao (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Alverca (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Alverca's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Alverca's attack (0.98x) against Famalicao's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.57
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.33
1.08
Alverca xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Alverca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Alverca expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.08 for Alverca, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Alverca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 16W 15D 10L from 41 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Alverca, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 18L across 41 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Alverca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Famalicao against 1.15 for Alverca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 9W 6D 5L from 20 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alverca's away record stands at 4W 4D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Alverca are on 1.07 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Early Season
Alverca
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Alverca in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 16W 15D 10L in their last 41 games (1.54 PPG), while Alverca have gone 12W 11D 18L in their last 41 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Alverca away?
Famalicao's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.65 PPG; Alverca away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Alverca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Alverca in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since January 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alverca won 1-4 on 12 Oct 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Alverca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Famalicao
0
Draws
2
Alverca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Alverca?
From 3 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 1, Alverca have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Alverca last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2026, when Famalicao 1-4 Alverca.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Alverca?
Alverca have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Alverca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 40%, Alverca 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Famalicao) and 55% (Alverca).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Alverca in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Alverca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Alverca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Famalicao's recent matches and 60% of Alverca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Alverca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Famalicao's recent games and 55% of Alverca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Alverca tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Alverca in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alverca run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Famalicao.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alverca beat Famalicao 1-4 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.25 xG and Alverca 1.08 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Alverca outscored their 1.08 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.88 / defence 0.85 against Alverca attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 40% | Draw 28% | Alverca 32%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Alverca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 39%, Alverca 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Alverca's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.54 PPG, Alverca 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alverca win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alverca (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.