Estrela 0-3 Farense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estrela at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estrela vs Farense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 31 as Estrela welcome Farense to Estádio José Gomes. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 April 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estrela stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Estrela's home record at Estádio José Gomes: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Farense — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Farense's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Estrela carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Estrela have won 0, Farense 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Estrela in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Farense in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 57% versus Farense 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 47% | Farense 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.69 xG and Farense 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 1.000 / defence 1.221 | Farense attack 0.911 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.279. Data: 30 Estrela games / 30 Farense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estrela 44% | Draw 24% | Farense 32%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Farense 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estrela at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estrela offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Estrela 80% | Farense 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Farense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Monday 29 Apr 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 44% | Draw 24% | Farense 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Estrela 1.69 / Farense 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 1.000 / def 1.221 | Farense attack 0.911 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Estrela (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Farense xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs Farense kick off?
Estrela vs Farense kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 29 April 2024 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Farense?
Estrela 0 - 3 Farense.
Where is Estrela vs Farense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Farense part of?
Estrela vs Farense is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Farense?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 44% chance of winning, Farense a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Estrela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Farense?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Estrela and Farense will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs Farense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Farense?
Record (1 meetings): Estrela 0W | Draws 1 | Farense 0W.
What form are Estrela and Farense in?
Estrela (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Farense (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Estrela's attack rating (1.00) and Farense's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Farense's attack versus Estrela's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estrela Win
44%
2.27
24%
4.24
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Estrela xG
Total xG
3.11
1.42
Farense xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
6%
16.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Farense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Estrela and Farense expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Estrela and 1.42 for Farense, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Farense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Estrela have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 6W 11D 13L record — D-L-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Farense's form line: 8W 7D 15L from 30 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estrela on 0.97 PPG, Farense on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Estrela have posted 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
On the road, Farense have gone 3W 3D 9L from 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Estrela are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Farense are on 1.30 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Farense in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Current Season
Farense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estrela and Farense in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 6W 11D 13L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Farense have gone 8W 7D 15L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Farense away?
Estrela's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.20 PPG; Farense away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estrela and Farense runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Farense have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2024, when Farense won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estrela's record when hosting Farense specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Estrela
1
Draws
3
Farense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Farense?
From 4 meetings on record, Estrela have won 0, Farense have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and Farense last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Estrela 0-1 Farense.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and Farense?
Farense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Estrela at 67%, Farense at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Estrela and 60% for Farense. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Farense in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Farense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estrela play Farense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Estrela's games and 73% of Farense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estrela vs Farense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Estrela's matches and 60% of Farense's.
Do Estrela and Farense tend to score early?
Estrela have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Farense in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Farense run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Estrela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Farense beat Estrela 0-3 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.69 xG and Farense 1.42 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Estrela fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Farense outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 1.00 / defence 1.22 against Farense attack 0.91 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 44% | Draw 24% | Farense 32%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Farense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 47%, Farense 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Farense's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estrela 0.97 PPG, Farense 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Farense win broke the near-deadlock. Estrela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Farense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.