Estoril 3-0 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Estoril at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Estoril welcome Santa Clara to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 April 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Estoril have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Estoril are significantly better at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
Santa Clara away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.30 PPG (Estoril) versus 0.10 (Santa Clara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Estoril's 30% rate and Santa Clara's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Estoril, 2 for Santa Clara and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Nov 2022, ended 1–3 with Santa Clara winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Estoril in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 43% versus Santa Clara 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 38% | Santa Clara 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.01 xG and Santa Clara 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.702 / defence 1.277 | Santa Clara attack 0.682 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.061. Estoril's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Estoril games / 63 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 37% | Draw 31% | Santa Clara 32%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Santa Clara 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Estoril as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estoril offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 30% | Santa Clara 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 37% | Draw 31% | Santa Clara 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Estoril 1.01 / Santa Clara 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.702 / def 1.277 | Santa Clara attack 0.682 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Estoril (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Santa Clara xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Santa Clara kick off?
Estoril vs Santa Clara kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Estoril 3 - 0 Santa Clara.
Where is Estoril vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Santa Clara part of?
Estoril vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 37% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Estoril and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Santa Clara?
Record (3 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 1 | Santa Clara 2W.
What form are Estoril and Santa Clara in?
Estoril (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Santa Clara (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Estoril's attack at 0.70x the league average against Santa Clara's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
37%
2.74
31%
3.18
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Estoril xG
Total xG
1.93
0.92
Santa Clara xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Estoril and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Estoril and 0.92 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estoril's recent record stands at 16W 16D 31L from 63 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Santa Clara, meanwhile, have gone 12W 20D 31L across 63 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estoril on 1.02 PPG, Santa Clara on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 8W 10D 13L from 31 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Santa Clara's away record stands at 2W 9D 20L across 31 trips, a 0.48 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estoril are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 0.90 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Current Season
Santa Clara
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 16W 16D 31L in their last 63 games (1.02 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 12W 20D 31L in their last 63 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Santa Clara away?
Estoril's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.10 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estoril and Santa Clara runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Estoril won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estoril's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Estoril
1
Draws
4
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Santa Clara?
From 8 meetings on record, Estoril have won 3, Santa Clara have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Santa Clara 2-4 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Santa Clara?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 48%, Santa Clara 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Estoril) and 48% (Santa Clara).
On the defensive side: Estoril have failed to score in 32% of games; Santa Clara in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Estoril's recent matches and 45% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Estoril's recent games and 48% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Estoril run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Santa Clara.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Santa Clara 3-0 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.01 xG and Santa Clara 0.92 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Estoril beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Santa Clara landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.70 / defence 1.28 against Santa Clara attack 0.68 / defence 1.11, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 37% | Draw 31% | Santa Clara 32%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 38%, Santa Clara 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Santa Clara's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.02 PPG, Santa Clara 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Santa Clara (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.