Alverca 0-4 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alverca vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
FC Alverca Sports Complex plays host to Alverca versus GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 24 October 2025 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
Alverca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 1D 4L from 8 games (1.25 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alverca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alverca have posted 2W 0D 2L at FC Alverca Sports Complex — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at FC Alverca Sports Complex. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
GIL Vicente (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
GIL Vicente arrive in superior form — a 0.55 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.25) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Alverca half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alverca 62% versus GIL Vicente 12%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alverca 75% | GIL Vicente 12%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alverca 0.88 xG and GIL Vicente 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alverca attack 0.851 / defence 1.088 | GIL Vicente attack 0.939 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.193. GIL Vicente's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 8 Alverca games / 42 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alverca 25% | Draw 33% | GIL Vicente 42%. Fair-value odds: Alverca 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | GIL Vicente 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIL Vicente at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Alverca 25% | GIL Vicente 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alverca vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: FC Alverca Sports Complex • Kick-off: Friday 24 Oct 2025, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alverca 25% | Draw 33% | GIL Vicente 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Alverca 0.88 / GIL Vicente 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Alverca attack 0.851 / def 1.088 | GIL Vicente attack 0.939 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Alverca xG
Expected Goals
1.22
GIL Vicente xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alverca vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Alverca vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 24 October 2025 at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Alverca vs GIL Vicente?
Alverca 0 - 4 GIL Vicente.
Where is Alverca vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
What competition is Alverca vs GIL Vicente part of?
Alverca vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Alverca vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Alverca a 25% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Alverca and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Alverca vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and GIL Vicente?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alverca and GIL Vicente in?
Alverca (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. GIL Vicente (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alverca's attack at 0.85x the league average against GIL Vicente's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.94x) against Alverca's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
25%
4.04
33%
3.00
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Alverca xG
Total xG
2.10
1.22
GIL Vicente xG
4.04
25%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
7%
13.66
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 14.9 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alverca vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Alverca and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Alverca and 1.22 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Alverca vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alverca come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 1D 4L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Alverca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Alverca — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Alverca's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alverca are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.25 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alverca have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; GIL Vicente in 12%.
Defensively: GIL Vicente in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alverca
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alverca and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Alverca have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alverca at home or GIL Vicente away?
GIL Vicente's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alverca at home: 1.50 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Alverca or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alverca have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 75%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Alverca
1
Draws
1
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and GIL Vicente?
From 2 meetings on record, Alverca have won 0, GIL Vicente have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alverca and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when GIL Vicente 2-2 Alverca.
Who has won more matches between Alverca and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alverca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Alverca) and 25% (GIL Vicente) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Alverca) and 25% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: Alverca keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; GIL Vicente in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alverca home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alverca play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Alverca's recent matches and 25% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alverca vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Alverca's recent games and 25% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alverca and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Alverca have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant GIL Vicente run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Alverca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Alverca 0-4 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 0.88 xG and GIL Vicente 1.22 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Alverca fell 0.9 short of their projected output. GIL Vicente outscored their 1.22 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against GIL Vicente attack 0.94 / defence 0.80, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alverca 25% | Draw 33% | GIL Vicente 42%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 75%, GIL Vicente 12%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alverca's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 12% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Alverca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.