Zaglebie Lubin 2-3 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zaglebie Lubin face Radomiak Radom.

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Analysis & Preview

Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin to take on Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 11:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Zaglebie Lubin at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Radomiak Radom — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zaglebie Lubin 1.40 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Zaglebie Lubin's 30% BTTS rate and Radomiak Radom's 20% (from Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, Radomiak Radom 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Mar 2023, ended Zaglebie Lubin 1–0 Radomiak Radom — a Zaglebie Lubin win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 44% versus Radomiak Radom 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Radomiak Radom 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.35 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.869 / defence 0.758 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.937 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.167. Zaglebie Lubin have a tight defence (rating 0.758), which is pulling Radomiak Radom's projected output down. Data: built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 46 games and Radomiak Radom's last 46.

Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 47% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 21%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.12 | Draw 3.12 | Radomiak Radom 4.80. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zaglebie Lubin 30% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 20% (last 10 away games).

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