Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Lech Poznan at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 28 October 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Cracovia Krakow — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cracovia Krakow at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Lech Poznan have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lech Poznan — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 60% of Lech Poznan's (from Cracovia Krakow's last 10 home games and Lech Poznan's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 1 for Lech Poznan and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2023, ended Cracovia Krakow 0–3 Lech Poznan — a Lech Poznan win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 44% versus Lech Poznan 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 36% | Lech Poznan 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.62 xG and Lech Poznan 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.947 / defence 1.379 | Lech Poznan attack 1.056 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.175. Cracovia Krakow's defence rating of 1.379 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lech Poznan's projected output up. Data: built from Cracovia Krakow's last 45 games and Lech Poznan's last 46.
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 35% | Draw 26% | Lech Poznan 39%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.85 | Draw 3.87 | Lech Poznan 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.62 / 1.71) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lech Poznan at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cracovia Krakow's last 10 home games and Lech Poznan's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cracovia Krakow 60% (last 10 home games) | Lech Poznan 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 35% | Draw 26% | Lech Poznan 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.62 / Lech Poznan 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.947 / def 1.379 | Lech Poznan attack 1.056 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Lech Poznan xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan FAQs
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 1 Lech Poznan.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 13) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 35% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 0.95x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cracovia Krakow's last 45 games and Lech Poznan's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
35%
2.85
26%
3.87
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.33
1.71
Lech Poznan xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
6%
15.76
8%
12.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.71 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 15W 15D 15L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Lech Poznan's form line: 24W 13D 8L from 45 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cracovia Krakow.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.55 PPG from their last 22 home games (9W 7D 6L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 10W 9D 3L from their last 22 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.69 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Lech Poznan in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
Cracovia Krakow (Home) vs Lech Poznan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan Form FAQs
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 15W 15D 15L in their last 45 games (1.33 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 24W 13D 8L in their last 45 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lech Poznan's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.55 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 May 2023, when Lech Poznan won Lech Poznan 3-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
6
Draws
3
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 July 2026: Lech Poznan 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 41%, Lech Poznan 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cracovia Krakow) and 54% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Lech Poznan in 36%; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 59% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 54% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 73% of Lech Poznan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.62 xG and Lech Poznan 1.71 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.95 / defence 1.38 against Lech Poznan attack 1.06 / defence 1.13, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 35% | Draw 26% | Lech Poznan 39%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 36%, Lech Poznan 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.