Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Puszcza Niepołomice travel to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin to take on Zaglebie Lubin. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 August 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season.
Puszcza Niepołomice — All Games: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Puszcza Niepołomice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
Puszcza Niepołomice trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zaglebie Lubin 100% and Puszcza Niepołomice 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 75% | Puszcza Niepołomice 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 2.03 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.945 / defence 0.984 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.976 / defence 1.513. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 0.975. Puszcza Niepołomice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.513 — this is suppressing Zaglebie Lubin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Zaglebie Lubin games / 4 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 63% | Draw 21% | Puszcza Niepołomice 16%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Puszcza Niepołomice 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Zaglebie Lubin (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zaglebie Lubin at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 40% | Puszcza Niepołomice 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Friday 18 Aug 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 63% | Draw 21% | Puszcza Niepołomice 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 2.03 / Puszcza Niepołomice 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.945 / def 0.984 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.976 / def 1.513 | league avg home 1.421 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 18 August 2023 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 63% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 0.94x the league average against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence at 1.51x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Puszcza Niepołomice's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
63%
1.60
21%
4.75
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.97
0.94
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
13%
7.64
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
2%
46.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.94 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 4 outings, Zaglebie Lubin have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 2W 1D 1L record — W-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form line: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Zaglebie Lubin are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Puszcza Niepołomice.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.25 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zaglebie Lubin have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Puszcza Niepołomice in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
Puszcza Niepołomice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Zaglebie Lubin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Puszcza Niepołomice specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 4 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 1-2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zaglebie Lubin at 100%, Puszcza Niepołomice at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Zaglebie Lubin and 50% for Puszcza Niepołomice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 75% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Zaglebie Lubin's matches and 50% of Puszcza Niepołomice's.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zaglebie Lubin edge out Puszcza Niepołomice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Puszcza Niepołomice 1-0 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 2.03 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.94 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Puszcza Niepołomice landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.98 / defence 1.51, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 63% | Draw 21% | Puszcza Niepołomice 16%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 75%, Puszcza Niepołomice 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 88%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Zaglebie Lubin arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zaglebie Lubin conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Puszcza Niepołomice managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.