Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice meet at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Zaglebie Lubin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Piast Gliwice (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Zaglebie Lubin's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Piast Gliwice's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Zaglebie Lubin 1W, Piast Gliwice 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Piast Gliwice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 43% versus Piast Gliwice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zaglebie Lubin 43% | Piast Gliwice 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 0.89 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.834 / defence 0.716 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.782 / defence 0.704. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.087. Piast Gliwice's defence strength of 0.704 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating of 0.716 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Zaglebie Lubin games / 44 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 39% | Draw 38% | Piast Gliwice 23%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.56 | Draw 2.63 | Piast Gliwice 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.50. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.50 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Piast Gliwice's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 19% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 28% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 20% | Piast Gliwice 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 39% | Draw 38% | Piast Gliwice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 28% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 0.89 / Piast Gliwice 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.834 / def 0.716 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.782 / def 0.704 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Piast Gliwice xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 39% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 23% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice?
Record (3 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 1 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.78x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 24.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.3%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
39%
2.55
38%
2.64
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
1.50
0.61
Piast Gliwice xG
2.55
39%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.62
72%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
9%
10.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.4 | 13.6 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.9 | 12.1 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.0%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.61 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 1.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 18W 10D 16L from 44 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 14L across 44 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.41 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 8W 6D 8L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 8W 8D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.05 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 18W 10D 16L in their last 44 games (1.45 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 16W 14D 14L in their last 44 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.36 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Zaglebie Lubin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
3
Draws
4
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Piast Gliwice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 41%, Piast Gliwice 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Zaglebie Lubin and 14% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 36%; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 36% of games; Piast Gliwice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 36% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 14% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 0.89 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.61 xG, a combined 1.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.83 / defence 0.72 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.78 / defence 0.70, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 39% | Draw 38% | Piast Gliwice 23%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 43%, Piast Gliwice 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.45 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.