Cracovia Krakow 2-4 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jagiellonia have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Cracovia Krakow, 1.90 for Jagiellonia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jagiellonia in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cracovia Krakow lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 42% versus Jagiellonia 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 35% | Jagiellonia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.51 xG and Jagiellonia 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.904 / defence 1.194 | Jagiellonia attack 0.975 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.103. Data: 43 Cracovia Krakow games / 43 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 41% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 31%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Jagiellonia 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Jagiellonia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 41% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.51 / Jagiellonia 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.904 / def 1.194 | Jagiellonia attack 0.975 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Jagiellonia xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 4 Jagiellonia.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 41% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia?
Record (4 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 2W | Draws 2 | Jagiellonia 0W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Jagiellonia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.97x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.58
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.80
1.28
Jagiellonia xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.28 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 14D 14L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.40 PPG from 43 outings (15W 15D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.40 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 9W 7D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 0.81 points per game from 21 outings (2W 11D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.56 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 70%.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 15W 14D 14L in their last 43 games (1.37 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 15W 15D 13L in their last 43 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Jagiellonia away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.62 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-2 on 10 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cracovia Krakow
4
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 38%, Jagiellonia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cracovia Krakow) and 43% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 29% of games; Jagiellonia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 67% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 43% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Cracovia Krakow 2-4 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.51 xG and Jagiellonia 1.28 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Jagiellonia outscored their 1.28 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.90 / defence 1.19 against Jagiellonia attack 0.97 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 41% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 31%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Jagiellonia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 35%, Jagiellonia 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.37 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.