Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Zaglebie Lubin take on Jagiellonia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Jagiellonia travel to KGHM Zaglebie Arena to take on Zaglebie Lubin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026, 12:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at KGHM Zaglebie Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Jagiellonia — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Zaglebie Lubin) versus 1.50 (Jagiellonia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Jagiellonia, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Zaglebie Lubin.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Jagiellonia winning.
It is worth noting that Jagiellonia have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Jagiellonia trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 51% versus Jagiellonia 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 46% | Jagiellonia 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 xG and Jagiellonia 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.825 / defence 0.845 | Jagiellonia attack 1.156 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Data: 44 Zaglebie Lubin games / 43 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 32% | Draw 34% | Jagiellonia 34%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Jagiellonia 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Jagiellonia 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 32% | Draw 34% | Jagiellonia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 / Jagiellonia 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.825 / def 0.845 | Jagiellonia attack 1.156 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Jagiellonia xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 12:45 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 0 Jagiellonia.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 32% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia?
Record (9 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 3 | Jagiellonia 5W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.82) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.10
34%
2.93
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.57
1.30
Jagiellonia xG
3.10
32%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.30 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 43 games, going 17W 12D 14L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.58 PPG from 43 outings (19W 11D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.47 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 10W 6D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.52 points per game from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.60 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 17W 12D 14L in their last 43 games (1.47 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 19W 11D 13L in their last 43 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Jagiellonia away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.71 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jagiellonia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Zaglebie Lubin
3
Draws
5
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 38%, Jagiellonia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 57% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 62% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 57% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Jagiellonia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Jagiellonia 1-0 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 xG and Jagiellonia 1.30 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jagiellonia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.82 / defence 0.84 against Jagiellonia attack 1.16 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 32% | Draw 34% | Jagiellonia 34%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 46%, Jagiellonia 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.47 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.