Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Orlen Stadion plays host to Wisla Plock versus Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wisla Plock have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Orlen Stadion this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Legia Warszawa (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Legia Warszawa are the stronger side — 1.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Wisla Plock 3W, Legia Warszawa 3W, 0D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Wisla Plock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Legia Warszawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 46% versus Legia Warszawa 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 38% | Legia Warszawa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 0.83 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.622 / defence 1.002 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.069 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.280. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.622 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Wisla Plock games / 41 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 19% | Draw 35% | Legia Warszawa 46%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 5.26 | Draw 2.86 | Legia Warszawa 2.17. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 10% | Legia Warszawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 19% | Draw 35% | Legia Warszawa 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Wisla Plock 0.83 / Legia Warszawa 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.622 / def 1.002 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.069 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Legia Warszawa xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Orlen Stadion.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 19% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 46% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa?
Record (6 meetings): Wisla Plock 3W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 3W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 0.62x the league average against Legia Warszawa's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (1.07x) against Wisla Plock's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 39/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
19%
5.29
35%
2.83
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.20
1.37
Legia Warszawa xG
5.29
19%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
5%
20.85
20%
5.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.2 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.37 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 13W 11D 15L from 39 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 9L across 39 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Wisla Plock against 1.54 for Legia Warszawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wisla Plock have managed 8W 4D 7L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Legia Warszawa's away record stands at 5W 9D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Plock are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.41 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 games (1.28 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 15W 15D 9L in their last 39 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.47 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
3
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Legia Warszawa have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Legia Warszawa 2-1 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 21%, Legia Warszawa 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Wisla Plock and 42% for Legia Warszawa.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 53% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 74% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 42% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.