Wisla Plock 0-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Plock host Jagiellonia at Orlen Stadion in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 September 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — All Games: 5W 1D 1L from 7 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.29 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 0.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.57 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Plock have posted 4W 0D 0L at Orlen Stadion — 3.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Orlen Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.29 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Orlen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wisla Plock at 2.29 PPG versus Jagiellonia's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Wisla Plock, 1 for Jagiellonia and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2023, ended 2–4 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (7 games): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (7 games): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 43% versus Jagiellonia 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 29% | Jagiellonia 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.39 xG and Jagiellonia 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.010 / defence 0.802 | Jagiellonia attack 1.078 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.187. Data: 7 Wisla Plock games / 40 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 45% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 28%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Jagiellonia 3.57. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wisla Plock as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 25% | Jagiellonia 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Sep 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 45% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Wisla Plock 1.39 / Jagiellonia 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.010 / def 0.802 | Jagiellonia attack 1.078 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Jagiellonia xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 19 September 2025 at Orlen Stadion.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Wisla Plock 0 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia part of?
Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 45% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia?
Record (4 meetings): Wisla Plock 2W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-1D-1L in 7 | 2.29 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 0.57 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.70
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.41
1.03
Jagiellonia xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
7%
14.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.03 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Wisla Plock have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 5W 1D 1L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia's form line: 4W 2D 1L from 7 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 2.29 PPG, Jagiellonia on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 2.00 scored and 1.57 conceded. Jagiellonia's attacking output running into Wisla Plock's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 71%.
Defensively: Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 games (2.29 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Have Wisla Plock or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Wisla Plock won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 43%, Jagiellonia 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Wisla Plock) and 57% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Wisla Plock's games and 71% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 57% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jagiellonia defy the odds to beat Wisla Plock 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Wisla Plock 0-1 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.39 xG and Jagiellonia 1.03 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Plock fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.01 / defence 0.80 against Jagiellonia attack 1.08 / defence 0.88, drawn from 7/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 45% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 28%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Jagiellonia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 29%, Jagiellonia 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 2.29 PPG, Jagiellonia 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Jagiellonia managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.