Warta Poznań 2-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (39%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Warta Poznań face Raków Częstochowa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Raków Częstochowa travel to Stadion Respect Energy to take on Warta Poznań in Ekstraklasa (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 11:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Warta Poznań stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Warta Poznań have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Raków Częstochowa have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Raków Częstochowa have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Raków Częstochowa are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Raków Częstochowa have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Warta Poznań.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended Warta Poznań 2–2 Raków Częstochowa — a draw.
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 40% versus Raków Częstochowa 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Warta Poznań 33% | Raków Częstochowa 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Warta Poznań surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Raków Częstochowa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.31 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.767 / defence 1.036 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.167 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.203. Warta Poznań's attack rating of 0.767 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.31. Data: built from Warta Poznań's last 53 games and Raków Częstochowa's last 52.
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 33% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 39%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 3.03 | Draw 3.63 | Raków Częstochowa 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Warta Poznań's last 10 home games and Raków Częstochowa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Warta Poznań 40% (last 10 home games) | Raków Częstochowa 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadion Respect Energy • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 33% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Warta Poznań 1.31 / Raków Częstochowa 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.767 / def 1.036 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.167 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Raków Częstochowa xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa FAQs
What time does Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Stadion Respect Energy.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa?
Warta Poznań 2 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Respect Energy.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 20) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 33% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Warta Poznań's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Warta Poznań's last 53 games and Raków Częstochowa's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
33%
3.03
28%
3.63
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.77
1.46
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
8%
12.98
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.46 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 16W 16D 20L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Raków Częstochowa's form line: 32W 11D 9L from 52 games, 2.06 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Warta Poznań.
Venue Form
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 1.12 PPG from their last 25 home games (6W 10D 9L).
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 11W 6D 8L from their last 25 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Raków Częstochowa's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.88 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Warta Poznań (Home) vs Raków Częstochowa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Warta Poznań
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa Form FAQs
What form are Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 16W 16D 20L in their last 52 games (1.23 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 32W 11D 9L in their last 52 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.12 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Oct 2021, when Raków Częstochowa won Raków Częstochowa 3-0 Warta Poznań.
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Warta Poznań
2
Draws
3
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Warta Poznań have won 1, Raków Częstochowa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 February 2024: Warta Poznań 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 48%, Raków Częstochowa 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Warta Poznań) and 56% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 60% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 56% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 72% of Raków Częstochowa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Warta Poznań defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Raków Częstochowa 2-1 at Stadion Respect Energy, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.31 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.46 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.77 / defence 1.04 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.17 / defence 1.15, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 33% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 39%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Warta Poznań win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 33%, Raków Częstochowa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Warta Poznań winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.