Ruch Chorzów 0-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruch Chorzów vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ruch Chorzów and Legia Warszawa meet at Stadion Śląski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ruch Chorzów's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 0W 7D 3L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ruch Chorzów, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ruch Chorzów have posted 1W 5D 3L at Stadion Śląski — 0.89 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Legia Warszawa have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Legia Warszawa arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ruch Chorzów lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ruch Chorzów half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruch Chorzów 58% versus Legia Warszawa 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruch Chorzów 53% | Legia Warszawa 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruch Chorzów 1.24 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruch Chorzów attack 0.854 / defence 1.241 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.938 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.218. Data: 19 Ruch Chorzów games / 53 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruch Chorzów 31% | Draw 29% | Legia Warszawa 40%. Fair-value odds: Ruch Chorzów 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Legia Warszawa 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Ruch Chorzów 56% | Legia Warszawa 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruch Chorzów vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Śląski • Kick-off: Friday 9 Feb 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruch Chorzów 31% | Draw 29% | Legia Warszawa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Ruch Chorzów 1.24 / Legia Warszawa 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Ruch Chorzów attack 0.854 / def 1.241 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.938 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Ruch Chorzów xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Legia Warszawa xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruch Chorzów vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Ruch Chorzów vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 9 February 2024 at Stadion Śląski.
What was the final score in Ruch Chorzów vs Legia Warszawa?
Ruch Chorzów 0 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Ruch Chorzów vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Śląski.
What competition is Ruch Chorzów vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Ruch Chorzów vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Ruch Chorzów vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Ruch Chorzów a 31% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruch Chorzów vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ruch Chorzów and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Ruch Chorzów vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruch Chorzów and Legia Warszawa?
Record (1 meetings): Ruch Chorzów 0W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 1W.
What form are Ruch Chorzów and Legia Warszawa in?
Ruch Chorzów (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ruch Chorzów's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.94x) against Ruch Chorzów's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 19/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
31%
3.19
29%
3.46
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Ruch Chorzów xG
Total xG
2.66
1.42
Legia Warszawa xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
8%
13.17
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruch Chorzów vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ruch Chorzów and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Ruch Chorzów and 1.42 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruch Chorzów vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, Ruch Chorzów have picked up 0.68 PPG on a 1W 10D 8L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ruch Chorzów is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 9W 5D 5L from 19 games, 1.68 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Legia Warszawa are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ruch Chorzów.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ruch Chorzów have posted 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (1W 5D 3L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ruch Chorzów are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.53 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruch Chorzów
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruch Chorzów and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Ruch Chorzów have gone 1W 10D 8L in their last 19 games (0.68 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 9W 5D 5L in their last 19 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruch Chorzów at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Legia Warszawa's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruch Chorzów at home: 0.89 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Ruch Chorzów or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruch Chorzów have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ruch Chorzów
0
Draws
2
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruch Chorzów and Legia Warszawa?
From 2 meetings on record, Ruch Chorzów have won 0, Legia Warszawa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruch Chorzów and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when Ruch Chorzów 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Ruch Chorzów and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ruch Chorzów are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruch Chorzów 56%, Legia Warszawa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ruch Chorzów) and 33% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Ruch Chorzów have failed to score in 33% of games; Legia Warszawa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruch Chorzów home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruch Chorzów play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Ruch Chorzów's recent matches and 44% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruch Chorzów vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ruch Chorzów's recent games and 33% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruch Chorzów and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Ruch Chorzów have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Ruch Chorzów 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Ruch Chorzów 0-1 at Stadion Śląski, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruch Chorzów 1.24 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.42 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ruch Chorzów fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruch Chorzów attack 0.85 / defence 1.24 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruch Chorzów 31% | Draw 29% | Legia Warszawa 40%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruch Chorzów 53%, Legia Warszawa 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruch Chorzów's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Ruch Chorzów (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.