Warta Poznań 0-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Warta Poznań face Legia Warszawa.

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Match Analysis

Warta Poznań host Legia Warszawa at Stadion Respect Energy in Ekstraklasa (matchday 33). Kick-off is Sunday 19 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Warta Poznań have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Warta Poznań have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Legia Warszawa — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Warta Poznań) versus 1.60 (Legia Warszawa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Warta Poznań's games and 60% of Legia Warszawa's (from Warta Poznań's last 10 home games and Legia Warszawa's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Warta Poznań have won 2, Legia Warszawa 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Warta Poznań 2–2 Legia Warszawa — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Warta Poznań in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 39% versus Legia Warszawa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Warta Poznań 32% | Legia Warszawa 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Warta Poznań surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Legia Warszawa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.29 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.978 / defence 0.957 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.361 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.117. Legia Warszawa have an above-average attack rating of 1.361, which lifts their away xG to 1.45. Data: built from Warta Poznań's last 66 games and Legia Warszawa's last 66.

Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 32% | Draw 29% | Legia Warszawa 39%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 3.16 | Draw 3.41 | Legia Warszawa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Warta Poznań 60% (last 10 home games) | Legia Warszawa 60% (last 10 away games).

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