Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepołomice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla plays host to Gornik Zabrze versus Puszcza Niepołomice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gornik Zabrze have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
Puszcza Niepołomice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Gornik Zabrze. A 0.60 PPG lead over Puszcza Niepołomice (2.00 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gornik Zabrze lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Puszcza Niepołomice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Puszcza Niepołomice half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 56% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 50% | Puszcza Niepołomice 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.37 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.062 / defence 0.899 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.678 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.146. Data: 66 Gornik Zabrze games / 32 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 51% | Draw 31% | Puszcza Niepołomice 17%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | Puszcza Niepołomice 5.88. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 50% | Puszcza Niepołomice 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 51% | Draw 31% | Puszcza Niepołomice 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.37 / Puszcza Niepołomice 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.062 / def 0.899 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.678 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Gornik Zabrze 1 - 1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 51% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Record (1 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 0W | Draws 0 | Puszcza Niepołomice 1W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gornik Zabrze's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Puszcza Niepołomice's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Puszcza Niepołomice's attack (0.68x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
51%
1.94
31%
3.21
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.07
0.70
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
4%
22.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.1 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.70 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gornik Zabrze's recent record stands at 15W 7D 10L from 32 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Puszcza Niepołomice, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 12L across 32 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gornik Zabrze by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Puszcza Niepołomice heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gornik Zabrze have managed 9W 4D 3L from 16 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Puszcza Niepołomice's away record stands at 2W 4D 10L across 16 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.16 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Current Season
Puszcza Niepołomice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 15W 7D 10L in their last 32 games (1.62 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 8W 12D 12L in their last 32 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.94 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Puszcza Niepołomice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Puszcza Niepołomice in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Puszcza Niepołomice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
1
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 4 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 0, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Puszcza Niepołomice have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 44%, Puszcza Niepołomice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gornik Zabrze) and 38% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Puszcza Niepołomice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 50% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 38% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze and Puszcza Niepołomice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze and Puszcza Niepołomice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.37 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.70 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.06 / defence 0.90 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.68 / defence 0.86, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 51% | Draw 31% | Puszcza Niepołomice 17%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 50%, Puszcza Niepołomice 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.