Warta Poznań 1-0 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Warta Poznań face Korona Kielce.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Respect Energy plays host to Warta Poznań versus Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). Kick-off: Friday 12 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Warta Poznań (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Warta Poznań's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Korona Kielce have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Korona Kielce have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Warta Poznań, 0.90 for Korona Kielce — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Warta Poznań edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2023, ended Warta Poznań 1–1 Korona Kielce — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Warta Poznań goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Korona Kielce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 39% versus Korona Kielce 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 31% | Korona Kielce 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.10 xG and Korona Kielce 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.689 / defence 0.947 | Korona Kielce attack 0.813 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.114. Warta Poznań's attack rating of 0.689 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Data: built from Warta Poznań's last 61 games and Korona Kielce's last 61.
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 38% | Draw 36% | Korona Kielce 25%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 2.60 | Draw 2.77 | Korona Kielce 3.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Warta Poznań are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Warta Poznań's last 10 home games and Korona Kielce's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Warta Poznań 40% (last 10 home games) | Korona Kielce 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadion Respect Energy • Kick-off: Friday 12 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 38% | Draw 36% | Korona Kielce 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Warta Poznań 1.10 / Korona Kielce 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.689 / def 0.947 | Korona Kielce attack 0.813 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Korona Kielce xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Warta Poznań vs Korona Kielce FAQs
What time does Warta Poznań vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 12 April 2024 at Stadion Respect Energy.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Korona Kielce?
Warta Poznań 1 - 0 Korona Kielce.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Respect Energy.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Korona Kielce part of?
Warta Poznań vs Korona Kielce is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 28) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 38% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 25% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Warta Poznań and Korona Kielce will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Warta Poznań vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 0.69x the league average against Korona Kielce's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.81x) against Warta Poznań's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from Warta Poznań's last 61 games and Korona Kielce's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
38%
2.60
36%
2.77
25%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
1.96
0.86
Korona Kielce xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.92
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
8%
11.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Warta Poznań vs Korona Kielce Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 0.86 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Warta Poznań come into this having played 61 games, going 18W 19D 24L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.11 PPG from 61 outings (16W 20D 25L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Warta Poznań against 1.11 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Warta Poznań's home form reads 7W 12D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 0.73 points per game from their last 30 away games (4W 10D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.13 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
Warta Poznań (Home) vs Korona Kielce (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Warta Poznań
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Warta Poznań vs Korona Kielce Form FAQs
What form are Warta Poznań and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 18W 19D 24L in their last 61 games (1.20 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 16W 20D 25L in their last 61 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Korona Kielce away?
Warta Poznań's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.10 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Korona Kielce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Korona Kielce in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Warta Poznań won Warta Poznań 5-1 Korona Kielce on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Warta Poznań have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Warta Poznań
1
Draws
0
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Warta Poznań vs Korona Kielce H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Korona Kielce?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Warta Poznań have won 3, Korona Kielce have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Korona Kielce last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2024: Warta Poznań 1-0 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Korona Kielce?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 47%, Korona Kielce 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Warta Poznań) and 47% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 40% of games; Korona Kielce in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Warta Poznań vs Korona Kielce Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Warta Poznań and Korona Kielce matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 60% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Warta Poznań and Korona Kielce matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 47% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Korona Kielce matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 67% of Korona Kielce's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Warta Poznań edge out Korona Kielce 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Korona Kielce 1-0 at Stadion Respect Energy, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.10 xG and Korona Kielce 0.86 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Korona Kielce landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.69 / defence 0.95 against Korona Kielce attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 38% | Draw 36% | Korona Kielce 25%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 31%, Korona Kielce 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.20 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Warta Poznań win broke the near-deadlock. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.