Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Slask Wroclaw take on Warta Poznań.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Warta Poznań travel to Tarczyński Arena to take on Slask Wroclaw. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slask Wroclaw stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw at Tarczyński Arena this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Slask Wroclaw are significantly better at Tarczyński Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Warta Poznań have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Slask Wroclaw 1.10 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Slask Wroclaw, 3 for Warta Poznań and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Slask Wroclaw trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Warta Poznań trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 55% versus Warta Poznań 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Slask Wroclaw 43% | Warta Poznań 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.02 xG and Warta Poznań 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.794 / defence 0.826 | Warta Poznań attack 0.856 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.131. Slask Wroclaw's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Slask Wroclaw games / 60 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 37% | Draw 38% | Warta Poznań 25%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.70 | Draw 2.63 | Warta Poznań 4.00. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slask Wroclaw 40% | Warta Poznań 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 37% | Draw 38% | Warta Poznań 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 38% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.02 / Warta Poznań 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.794 / def 0.826 | Warta Poznań attack 0.856 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Warta Poznań xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Warta Poznań?
Slask Wroclaw 2 - 1 Warta Poznań.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Warta Poznań part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 37% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 25% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Warta Poznań?
Record (5 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 1W | Draws 1 | Warta Poznań 3W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Warta Poznań in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Warta Poznań (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slask Wroclaw's attack at 0.79x the league average against Warta Poznań's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.72
38%
2.61
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
1.82
0.80
Warta Poznań xG
2.72
37%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 0.80 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slask Wroclaw come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 19D 19L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Warta Poznań sit at 1.22 PPG from 60 outings (18W 19D 23L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slask Wroclaw on 1.42 PPG, Warta Poznań on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Slask Wroclaw's home form reads 12W 10D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Warta Poznań have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.02 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 22W 19D 19L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 18W 19D 23L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Warta Poznań away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.53 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Slask Wroclaw or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Slask Wroclaw have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Slask Wroclaw
1
Draws
3
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, Warta Poznań have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Warta Poznań?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 60%, Warta Poznań 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Slask Wroclaw) and 30% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 40%; Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 33% of games; Warta Poznań in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 30% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 30% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slask Wroclaw edge out Warta Poznań 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Warta Poznań 2-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.02 xG and Warta Poznań 0.80 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.79 / defence 0.83 against Warta Poznań attack 0.86 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 37% | Draw 38% | Warta Poznań 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Slask Wroclaw win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 43%, Warta Poznań 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.42 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.