Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slask Wroclaw face Raków Częstochowa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tarczyński Arena plays host to Slask Wroclaw versus Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slask Wroclaw have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Tarczyński Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Slask Wroclaw are significantly better at Tarczyński Arena than their overall form suggests.
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Raków Częstochowa are 1.60 PPG clear of Slask Wroclaw in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (2.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Slask Wroclaw 1W, Raków Częstochowa 3W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Slask Wroclaw half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 56% versus Raków Częstochowa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 47% | Raków Częstochowa 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 0.91 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.031 / defence 1.161 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.006 / defence 0.600. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.184. Raków Częstochowa's defence strength of 0.600 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Slask Wroclaw games / 46 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 25% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 48%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Raków Częstochowa 2.08. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Slask Wroclaw 70% | Raków Częstochowa 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 25% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Slask Wroclaw 0.91 / Raków Częstochowa 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.031 / def 1.161 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.006 / def 0.600 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Raków Częstochowa xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa?
Slask Wroclaw 0 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 25% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (6 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 1W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 3W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Slask Wroclaw's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.60x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (1.01x) against Slask Wroclaw's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
25%
4.04
27%
3.65
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.29
1.38
Raków Częstochowa xG
4.04
25%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
6%
16.10
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 13.9 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.38 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slask Wroclaw's recent record stands at 19W 14D 12L from 45 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 12L across 45 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Slask Wroclaw against 1.67 for Raków Częstochowa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Slask Wroclaw have managed 10W 7D 5L from 22 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 9W 6D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.49 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 19W 14D 12L in their last 45 games (1.58 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 21W 12D 12L in their last 45 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.68 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Slask Wroclaw or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 1-4 on 28 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slask Wroclaw have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Slask Wroclaw
3
Draws
4
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa?
From 8 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Raków Częstochowa 3-0 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 64%, Raków Częstochowa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Slask Wroclaw) and 36% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 54% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 36% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slask Wroclaw's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 0.91 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.38 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 1.03 / defence 1.16 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.01 / defence 0.60, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 25% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 48%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 47%, Raków Częstochowa 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.58 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.