Raków Częstochowa 5-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin make the trip to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków to face Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Zaglebie Lubin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Raków Częstochowa. A 0.60 PPG lead over Zaglebie Lubin (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Raków Częstochowa 2W, Zaglebie Lubin 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 44% versus Zaglebie Lubin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 52% | Zaglebie Lubin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.78 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.097 / defence 0.693 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.011 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.198. Raków Częstochowa's defence rating of 0.693 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Raków Częstochowa games / 47 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 58% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 16%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Zaglebie Lubin 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 58% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.78 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.097 / def 0.693 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.011 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Zaglebie Lubin xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Raków Częstochowa 5 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 58% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (4 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 2W | Draws 1 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.10) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (1.01x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
58%
1.72
26%
3.81
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.62
0.84
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
17%
5.93
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
3%
37.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.84 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 30W 8D 8L from 46 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 18L across 46 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zaglebie Lubin heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 18W 4D 1L from 23 games — 2.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 10W 4D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.11 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 30W 8D 8L in their last 46 games (2.13 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 18W 10D 18L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.52 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 on 5 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 35%, Zaglebie Lubin 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Raków Częstochowa) and 61% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 44% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 61% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Zaglebie Lubin 5-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.78 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.84 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zaglebie Lubin landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.10 / defence 0.69 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.01 / defence 1.09, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 58% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 16%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 52%, Zaglebie Lubin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.