Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Motor Lublin make the trip to to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Motor Lublin (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Motor Lublin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Motor Lublin have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Motor Lublin in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Radomiak Radom, 2 for Motor Lublin and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Motor Lublin — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 68% and Motor Lublin 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 61% | Motor Lublin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.70 xG and Motor Lublin 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.945 / defence 1.012 | Motor Lublin attack 1.033 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.280. Data: 41 Radomiak Radom games / 41 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 43% | Draw 30% | Motor Lublin 27%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Motor Lublin 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Motor Lublin 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: • Kick-off: Monday 12 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 43% | Draw 30% | Motor Lublin 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 64% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.70 / Motor Lublin 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.945 / def 1.012 | Motor Lublin attack 1.033 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Motor Lublin xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Monday 12 October 2026.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 43% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin?
Record (4 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 2 | Motor Lublin 2W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Motor Lublin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.94x the league average against Motor Lublin's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Motor Lublin's attack (1.03x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.30
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.04
1.34
Motor Lublin xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
5%
20.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.34 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 13D 15L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Motor Lublin sit at 1.17 PPG from 41 outings (11W 15D 15L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Motor Lublin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.17 for Motor Lublin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 10W 5D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Motor Lublin have taken 1.05 points per game from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 1.32 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Motor Lublin in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Motor Lublin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 13D 15L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 11W 15D 15L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Motor Lublin away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.75 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Motor Lublin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Radomiak Radom
2
Draws
2
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin?
From 4 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 0, Motor Lublin have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Motor Lublin.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin?
Motor Lublin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Radomiak Radom, 65% for Motor Lublin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Radomiak Radom and 65% for Motor Lublin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Motor Lublin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Radomiak Radom's games and 65% of Motor Lublin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 65% of Motor Lublin's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Motor Lublin in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.