Pogon Szczecin 0-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pogon Szczecin (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pogon Szczecin face Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pogon Szczecin have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 1.20 PPG lead over Radomiak Radom (2.50 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Pogon Szczecin, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Radomiak Radom — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 4–0 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Pogon Szczecin and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 64% versus Radomiak Radom 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 61% | Radomiak Radom 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.70 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.236 / defence 1.087 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.018 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 0.937. Data: 36 Pogon Szczecin games / 37 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 53% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 23%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Radomiak Radom 4.35. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Radomiak Radom 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 53% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.70 / Radomiak Radom 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.236 / def 1.087 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.018 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.444 / away 0.937 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Radomiak Radom xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Pogon Szczecin 0 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 53% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom?
Record (4 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 3W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.02x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.16
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.73
1.04
Radomiak Radom xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
4%
23.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.04 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 19W 9D 8L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 13W 7D 16L from 36 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2.06 PPG from 18 outings (11W 4D 3L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 8W 3D 7L from 18 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 0.97 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 19W 9D 8L in their last 36 games (1.83 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 7D 16L in their last 36 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.06 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-0 on 4 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 67%, Radomiak Radom 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Pogon Szczecin and 50% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 39% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 50% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pogon Szczecin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Pogon Szczecin 0-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.70 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.04 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Radomiak Radom outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.24 / defence 1.09 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 53% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 23%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Radomiak Radom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 61%, Radomiak Radom 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Radomiak Radom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.