Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 41%, yet in-form Zaglebie Lubin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 4 as Cracovia Krakow welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 August 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Zaglebie Lubin's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cracovia Krakow's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 1 for Zaglebie Lubin and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 42% versus Zaglebie Lubin 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 36% | Zaglebie Lubin 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.31 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.026 / defence 0.916 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.222 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 0.950. Zaglebie Lubin have an above-average attack strength of 1.222 — the away xG of 1.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Cracovia Krakow games / 37 Zaglebie Lubin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 41% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 30%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zaglebie Lubin (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 40% | Zaglebie Lubin 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 11 Aug 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 41% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.31 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.026 / def 0.916 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.222 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.426 / away 0.950 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Zaglebie Lubin xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 11 August 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 41% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (4 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 2W | Draws 1 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cracovia Krakow's attack rating (1.03) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
41%
2.41
29%
3.47
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.37
1.06
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
8%
12.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.06 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 13W 11D 12L from 36 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 13L across 36 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.39 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 8W 5D 4L from 17 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 9W 4D 4L across 17 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.42 PPG overall record — Zaglebie Lubin travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.11 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 13W 11D 12L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 14W 9D 13L in their last 36 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Zaglebie Lubin's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.71 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cracovia Krakow
5
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 29%, Zaglebie Lubin 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Cracovia Krakow) and 65% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 47% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 65% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cracovia Krakow edge out Zaglebie Lubin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.31 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.06 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.03 / defence 0.92 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.22 / defence 0.89, drawn from 36/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 41% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 30%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 36%, Zaglebie Lubin 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.39 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.