Piast Gliwice 3-3 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lechia Gdansk make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Piast Gliwice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Friday 25 October 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Piast Gliwice have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Piast Gliwice are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Lechia Gdansk (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk away from home this season: 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Piast Gliwice's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Piast Gliwice 2W, Lechia Gdansk 2W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Lechia Gdansk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lechia Gdansk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 33% versus Lechia Gdansk 75%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 17% | Lechia Gdansk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.82 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.895 / defence 0.888 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.071 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.149. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Piast Gliwice games / 12 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 54% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 23%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Lechia Gdansk 4.35. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 40% | Lechia Gdansk 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 54% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.82 / Lechia Gdansk 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.895 / def 0.888 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.071 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Lechia Gdansk xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk?
Piast Gliwice 3 - 3 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 54% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (4 meetings): Piast Gliwice 2W | Draws 0 | Lechia Gdansk 2W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Lechia Gdansk's attack (1.07x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
54%
1.84
23%
4.35
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.91
1.09
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
4%
27.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.09 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 5W 3D 4L from 12 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lechia Gdansk, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 7L across 12 games — 0.75 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Piast Gliwice by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lechia Gdansk heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lechia Gdansk's away record stands at 1W 0D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.08 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk in 75%.
Last 12 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.60 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
2
Draws
4
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Lechia Gdansk have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 40% for Piast Gliwice, 100% for Lechia Gdansk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 20% for Piast Gliwice and 100% for Lechia Gdansk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Lechia Gdansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Piast Gliwice's games and 100% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 20% of Piast Gliwice's matches and 100% of Lechia Gdansk's.
Do Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 13, as Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk drew 3-3 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.82 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.09 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lechia Gdansk outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.90 / defence 0.89 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.07 / defence 1.44, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 54% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 23%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 17%, Lechia Gdansk 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Piast Gliwice arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.