Legia Warszawa 4-1 GKS Katowice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host GKS Katowice at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 19:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, GKS Katowice have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GKS Katowice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, GKS Katowice have posted 2W 1D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Legia Warszawa 1.30 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
GKS Katowice in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 58% versus GKS Katowice 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 33% | GKS Katowice 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.79 xG and GKS Katowice 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.174 / defence 1.032 | GKS Katowice attack 1.191 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.197. Data: 46 Legia Warszawa games / 12 GKS Katowice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 45% | Draw 23% | GKS Katowice 32%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | GKS Katowice 3.12. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. This conflicts with form data: Legia Warszawa 60% | GKS Katowice 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 45% | Draw 23% | GKS Katowice 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.79 / GKS Katowice 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.174 / def 1.032 | GKS Katowice attack 1.191 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.47
GKS Katowice xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice kicked off at 19:15 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice?
Legia Warszawa 4 - 1 GKS Katowice.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice part of?
Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 45% chance of winning, GKS Katowice a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. GKS Katowice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.17x the league average against GKS Katowice's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GKS Katowice's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
45%
2.20
23%
4.37
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.26
1.47
GKS Katowice xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
5%
18.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.47 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 5W 4D 3L from 12 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GKS Katowice, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 4L across 12 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for GKS Katowice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.58 PPG, GKS Katowice on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GKS Katowice's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; GKS Katowice are on 1.50 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
GKS Katowice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 games (1.58 PPG), while GKS Katowice have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or GKS Katowice away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.40 PPG; GKS Katowice away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or GKS Katowice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, GKS Katowice in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Legia Warszawa won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting GKS Katowice specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
0
GKS Katowice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice?
From 4 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, GKS Katowice have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when GKS Katowice 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 80%, GKS Katowice 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Legia Warszawa and 60% for GKS Katowice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GKS Katowice in 40%; GKS Katowice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / GKS Katowice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play GKS Katowice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 20% of GKS Katowice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 60% of GKS Katowice's.
Do Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, GKS Katowice in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Legia Warszawa run riot with a 4-1 hammering of GKS Katowice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat GKS Katowice 4-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.79 xG and GKS Katowice 1.47 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.17 / defence 1.03 against GKS Katowice attack 1.19 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 45% | Draw 23% | GKS Katowice 32%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 33%, GKS Katowice 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
GKS Katowice's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.58 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.