Legia Warszawa 3-2 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 16 as Legia Warszawa welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Legia Warszawa at 1.50 PPG versus Cracovia Krakow's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Legia Warszawa, 3 for Cracovia Krakow and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 59% versus Cracovia Krakow 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 49% | Cracovia Krakow 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.89 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.303 / defence 0.944 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.318 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.228. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cracovia Krakow have an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Legia Warszawa games / 49 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 46% | Draw 22% | Cracovia Krakow 31%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Cracovia Krakow 3.23. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 70% | Cracovia Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 46% | Draw 22% | Cracovia Krakow 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.89 / Cracovia Krakow 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.303 / def 0.944 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.318 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Cracovia Krakow xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Legia Warszawa 3 - 2 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 46% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (6 meetings): Legia Warszawa 2W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 3W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.30x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
46%
2.16
22%
4.50
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.42
1.53
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
5%
21.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.53 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 23W 15D 11L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 17W 17D 15L from 49 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.71 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 1.79 PPG from 24 outings (12W 7D 5L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 9W 8D 7L from 24 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.59 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 23W 15D 11L in their last 49 games (1.71 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 17W 17D 15L in their last 49 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.79 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Legia Warszawa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 67%, Cracovia Krakow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Legia Warszawa) and 38% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Legia Warszawa's games and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 38% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Cracovia Krakow 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Cracovia Krakow 3-2 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.89 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.53 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.30 / defence 0.94 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.32 / defence 0.97, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 46% | Draw 22% | Cracovia Krakow 31%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 49%, Cracovia Krakow 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.71 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.