Legia Warszawa 3-2 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Legia Warszawa face Cracovia Krakow.

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Fixture Analysis

Legia Warszawa welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 23 November 2024 at 19:15 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Cracovia Krakow — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Cracovia Krakow away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Legia Warszawa at 1.50 PPG versus Cracovia Krakow's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Legia Warszawa have won 2, Cracovia Krakow 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2023, ended Legia Warszawa 0–2 Cracovia Krakow — a Cracovia Krakow win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 59% versus Cracovia Krakow 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 49% | Cracovia Krakow 47%). Note also that Cracovia Krakow surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Legia Warszawa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 56% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.89 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.303 / defence 0.944 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.318 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.228. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack rating of 1.303 — their 1.89 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Cracovia Krakow have an above-average attack rating of 1.318, which lifts their away xG to 1.53. Data: built from Legia Warszawa's last 49 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 49.

Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 46% | Draw 22% | Cracovia Krakow 31%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.16 | Draw 4.50 | Cracovia Krakow 3.18. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.89 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Legia Warszawa's last 10 home games and Cracovia Krakow's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Legia Warszawa 70% (last 10 home games) | Cracovia Krakow 50% (last 10 away games).

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