Jagiellonia 2-2 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Slask Wroclaw travel to Chorten Arena to take on Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Jagiellonia — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Jagiellonia have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Slask Wroclaw have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Slask Wroclaw away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Jagiellonia are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Jagiellonia, 1 for Slask Wroclaw and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Mar 2024, ended Jagiellonia 3–1 Slask Wroclaw — a Jagiellonia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 67% versus Slask Wroclaw 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 71% | Slask Wroclaw 46%). Note also that Slask Wroclaw surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Jagiellonia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.07 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.252 / defence 1.055 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.730 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.213. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.252 — their 2.07 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Slask Wroclaw's attack rating of 0.730 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Jagiellonia's last 49 games and Slask Wroclaw's last 48.
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 64% | Draw 20% | Slask Wroclaw 16%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.57 | Draw 4.93 | Slask Wroclaw 6.22. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (64%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jagiellonia's last 10 home games and Slask Wroclaw's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jagiellonia 50% (last 10 home games) | Slask Wroclaw 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 16 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 64% | Draw 20% | Slask Wroclaw 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Jagiellonia 2.07 / Slask Wroclaw 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.252 / def 1.055 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.730 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Slask Wroclaw xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw FAQs
What time does Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 22 November 2024 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw?
Jagiellonia 2 - 2 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 16) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 64% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Slask Wroclaw's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jagiellonia's last 49 games and Slask Wroclaw's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
64%
1.57
20%
4.93
16%
6.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.01
0.93
Slask Wroclaw xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
6.22
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
13%
7.95
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
2%
49.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.93 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 28W 11D 9L from 48 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 14L across 48 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jagiellonia by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slask Wroclaw heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 16W 5D 3L from their last 24 home games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 9W 7D 8L across their last 24 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.27 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Jagiellonia (Home) vs Slask Wroclaw (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jagiellonia
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw Form FAQs
What form are Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 28W 11D 9L in their last 48 games (1.98 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 19W 15D 14L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.21 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
6
Draws
1
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Jagiellonia have won 2, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Jagiellonia 2-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 58%, Slask Wroclaw 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Jagiellonia) and 46% (Slask Wroclaw). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Slask Wroclaw in 38%; Slask Wroclaw in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 46% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Jagiellonia's matches and 46% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 58% of Slask Wroclaw's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw finished level at 2-2 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.07 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.93 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.25 / defence 1.05 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.73 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 64% | Draw 20% | Slask Wroclaw 16%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 71%, Slask Wroclaw 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.