Legia Warszawa 0-0 Arka Gdynia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Arka Gdynia travel to Stadion Wojska Polskiego to take on Legia Warszawa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 August 2025, 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa's home record at Stadion Wojska Polskiego: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arka Gdynia stand at 0W 1D 1L from 2 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Arka Gdynia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.56 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.940 / defence 0.935 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.698 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.293. Data: 35 Legia Warszawa games / 2 Arka Gdynia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 54% | Draw 25% | Arka Gdynia 20%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Arka Gdynia 5.00. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Aug 2025, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 54% | Draw 25% | Arka Gdynia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.56 / Arka Gdynia 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.940 / def 0.935 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.698 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Arka Gdynia xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia kicked off at 19:15 on Sunday 3 August 2025 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia?
Legia Warszawa 0 - 0 Arka Gdynia.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 54% chance of winning, Arka Gdynia a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Arka Gdynia will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Arka Gdynia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Arka Gdynia in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Arka Gdynia (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (0.94) and Arka Gdynia's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Arka Gdynia's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
54%
1.84
25%
3.93
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.40
0.84
Arka Gdynia xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
4%
23.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Arka Gdynia expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.84 for Arka Gdynia, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 0L record — D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arka Gdynia's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D. It's still early in the season for Arka Gdynia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Legia Warszawa are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arka Gdynia.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Arka Gdynia are on 0.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Legia Warszawa's scoring rate against Arka Gdynia's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Arka Gdynia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Arka Gdynia in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Arka Gdynia have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Legia Warszawa or Arka Gdynia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Arka Gdynia in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Arka Gdynia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Legia Warszawa
2
Draws
0
Arka Gdynia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Arka Gdynia?
From 2 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 0, Arka Gdynia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Arka Gdynia last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Arka Gdynia 2-2 Legia Warszawa.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Arka Gdynia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Arka Gdynia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 50% of Arka Gdynia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 0% of Arka Gdynia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Legia Warszawa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa and Arka Gdynia finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.56 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.84 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Legia Warszawa fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Arka Gdynia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.70 / defence 1.05, drawn from 35/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 54% | Draw 25% | Arka Gdynia 20%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 50%, Arka Gdynia 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Legia Warszawa managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Arka Gdynia conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.