Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Lechia Gdansk welcome Cracovia Krakow to Polsat Plus Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 20). Kick-off is Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Lechia Gdansk — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Lechia Gdansk have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Cracovia Krakow stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Cracovia Krakow's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

On current form, Lechia Gdansk have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, Cracovia Krakow 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Aug 2025, ended Lechia Gdansk 2–2 Cracovia Krakow — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 70% and Cracovia Krakow 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 64% | Cracovia Krakow 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lechia Gdansk surrender their half-time lead 41% of the time, while Cracovia Krakow have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 58% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.66 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.321 / defence 1.100 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.889 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.236. Lechia Gdansk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.321 — their 1.66 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Lechia Gdansk's last 53 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 53.

Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 47% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 27%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.11 | Draw 3.96 | Cracovia Krakow 3.67. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lechia Gdansk's last 10 home games and Cracovia Krakow's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lechia Gdansk 80% (last 10 home games) | Cracovia Krakow 40% (last 10 away games).

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