GKS Katowice 1-0 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GKS Katowice at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Widzew Łódź make the trip to Stadion miejski w Katowicach to face GKS Katowice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GKS Katowice have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for GKS Katowice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GKS Katowice have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadion miejski w Katowicach — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in GKS Katowice's favour (1.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — GKS Katowice lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with Widzew Łódź winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
GKS Katowice half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GKS Katowice 48% versus Widzew Łódź 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GKS Katowice 58% | Widzew Łódź 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GKS Katowice 1.62 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GKS Katowice attack 0.971 / defence 1.058 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.056 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.220. Data: 52 GKS Katowice games / 53 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GKS Katowice 42% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 31%. Fair-value odds: GKS Katowice 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Widzew Łódź 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Widzew Łódź lead the H2H ledger, but GKS Katowice carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates GKS Katowice as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GKS Katowice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GKS Katowice 50% | Widzew Łódź 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion miejski w Katowicach • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GKS Katowice 42% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG GKS Katowice 1.62 / Widzew Łódź 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: GKS Katowice attack 0.971 / def 1.058 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.056 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: GKS Katowice (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
GKS Katowice xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Widzew Łódź xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach.
What was the final score in GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź?
GKS Katowice 1 - 0 Widzew Łódź.
Where is GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion miejski w Katowicach.
What competition is GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź part of?
GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives GKS Katowice a 42% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making GKS Katowice the favourite.
Will both teams score in GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź?
Record (3 meetings): GKS Katowice 0W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 2W.
What form are GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź in?
GKS Katowice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GKS Katowice's attack rating (0.97) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.06x) against GKS Katowice's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GKS Katowice Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.76
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
GKS Katowice xG
Total xG
2.98
1.36
Widzew Łódź xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for GKS Katowice and 1.36 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GKS Katowice come into this having played 52 games, going 21W 9D 22L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for GKS Katowice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.13 PPG from 52 outings (17W 8D 27L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for GKS Katowice against 1.13 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
GKS Katowice's home form reads 12W 6D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 0.76 points per game from 25 outings (5W 4D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GKS Katowice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GKS Katowice are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.23 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GKS Katowice
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
GKS Katowice have gone 21W 9D 22L in their last 52 games (1.38 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 17W 8D 27L in their last 52 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GKS Katowice at home or Widzew Łódź away?
GKS Katowice's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GKS Katowice at home: 1.68 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Widzew Łódź won 3-0 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GKS Katowice have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
GKS Katowice
1
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź?
From 4 meetings on record, GKS Katowice have won 1, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when GKS Katowice 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GKS Katowice 52%, Widzew Łódź 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for GKS Katowice and 64% for Widzew Łódź. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GKS Katowice keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; GKS Katowice have failed to score in 28% of games; Widzew Łódź in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GKS Katowice home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GKS Katowice play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of GKS Katowice's games and 64% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of GKS Katowice's matches and 64% of Widzew Łódź's.
Do GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
GKS Katowice have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GKS Katowice edge out Widzew Łódź 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GKS Katowice beat Widzew Łódź 1-0 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.62 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.36 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.06 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 42% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 31%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 58%, Widzew Łódź 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GKS Katowice's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.38 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.