Lech Poznan 3-1 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lech Poznan host Wisla Krakow at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lech Poznan stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lech Poznan have posted 6W 4D 0L at Stadion Miejski — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski this season.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Krakow have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Krakow's away record: 0W 3D 3L from 6 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Lech Poznan are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lech Poznan register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wisla Krakow in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Lech Poznan have won 1, Wisla Krakow 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lech Poznan trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Wisla Krakow trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lech Poznan 75% and Wisla Krakow 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lech Poznan 83% | Wisla Krakow 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 2.55 xG and Wisla Krakow 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 1.513 / defence 0.808 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.804 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.273. Lech Poznan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.513 — their λ of 2.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Lech Poznan games / 12 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 73% | Draw 19% | Wisla Krakow 8%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 1.37 | Draw 5.26 | Wisla Krakow 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Lech Poznan (73%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lech Poznan are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Lech Poznan 60% | Wisla Krakow 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 73% | Draw 19% | Wisla Krakow 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 53% | xG Lech Poznan 2.55 / Wisla Krakow 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 1.513 / def 0.808 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.804 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Wisla Krakow xG
53%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow?
Lech Poznan 3 - 1 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 73% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 8% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow?
Record (2 meetings): Lech Poznan 1W | Draws 1 | Wisla Krakow 0W.
What form are Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow in?
Lech Poznan (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lech Poznan's attack at 1.51x the league average against Wisla Krakow's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Lech Poznan's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
73%
1.37
19%
5.35
8%
12.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
3.37
0.83
Wisla Krakow xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.35
19%
Draw
12.00
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
8%
12.78
Win to Nil
32%
3.13
1%
153.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 0.83 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lech Poznan's recent record stands at 9W 2D 1L from 12 games, a 2.42 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 3L across 12 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lech Poznan by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wisla Krakow heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lech Poznan have managed 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — 2.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Krakow's away record stands at 0W 3D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Krakow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lech Poznan are averaging 2.58 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.58 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lech Poznan have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Wisla Krakow in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Blended
Wisla Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 9W 2D 1L in their last 12 games (2.42 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Lech Poznan's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 2.67 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2021, when Lech Poznan won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lech Poznan's record when hosting Wisla Krakow specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Lech Poznan
1
Draws
0
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow?
From 3 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 2, Wisla Krakow have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Lech Poznan 3-1 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lech Poznan see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lech Poznan 50%, Wisla Krakow 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Lech Poznan) and 50% (Wisla Krakow). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Wisla Krakow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lech Poznan play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Lech Poznan's games and 67% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lech Poznan's matches and 50% of Wisla Krakow's.
Do Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Lech Poznan have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lech Poznan cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wisla Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Wisla Krakow 3-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 2.55 xG and Wisla Krakow 0.83 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.51 / defence 0.81 against Wisla Krakow attack 0.80 / defence 1.08, drawn from 45/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 73% | Draw 19% | Wisla Krakow 8%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 83%, Wisla Krakow 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lech Poznan's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.