Lech Poznan 0-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lech Poznan (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lech Poznan face Cracovia Krakow.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Cracovia Krakow travel to Enea Poznań to take on Lech Poznan. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 July 2026, 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lech Poznan stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lech Poznan haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lech Poznan at Enea Poznań this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cracovia Krakow haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cracovia Krakow away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Lech Poznan are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Lech Poznan have won 3, Cracovia Krakow 1, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lech Poznan trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lech Poznan 68% versus Cracovia Krakow 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lech Poznan 68% | Cracovia Krakow 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 1.95 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 1.227 / defence 1.098 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.949 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Lech Poznan games / 34 Cracovia Krakow games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 54% | Draw 24% | Cracovia Krakow 23%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Cracovia Krakow 4.35. Lech Poznan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lech Poznan are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Lech Poznan 80% | Cracovia Krakow 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Enea Poznań • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jul 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 54% | Draw 24% | Cracovia Krakow 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Lech Poznan 1.95 / Cracovia Krakow 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 1.227 / def 1.098 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.949 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Cracovia Krakow xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 18:15 on Saturday 25 July 2026 at Enea Poznań.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?
Lech Poznan 0 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Enea Poznań.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 54% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (9 meetings): Lech Poznan 3W | Draws 5 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Lech Poznan (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lech Poznan's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Lech Poznan's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
54%
1.86
24%
4.24
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
3.16
1.21
Cracovia Krakow xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
14%
7.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
3%
30.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 1.21 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lech Poznan's recent record stands at 16W 12D 6L from 34 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. Lech Poznan haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 9W 15D 10L across 34 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-D-D-D-D in their last five. Cracovia Krakow haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lech Poznan by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cracovia Krakow heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lech Poznan have managed 7W 7D 3L from 17 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 4W 6D 7L across 17 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lech Poznan are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.15 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lech Poznan have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Pre-Season
Cracovia Krakow
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 16W 12D 6L in their last 34 games (1.76 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 9W 15D 10L in their last 34 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Lech Poznan's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 1.65 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Lech Poznan or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2023, when Lech Poznan won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lech Poznan's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lech Poznan
6
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Lech Poznan 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lech Poznan 88%, Cracovia Krakow 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Lech Poznan and 53% for Cracovia Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 65% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 41%; Cracovia Krakow in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lech Poznan play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Lech Poznan's games and 41% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Lech Poznan's matches and 53% of Cracovia Krakow's.
Do Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Lech Poznan have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lech Poznan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Enea Poznań, Regular Season - 1, as Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.95 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.21 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lech Poznan fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.23 / defence 1.10 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 54% | Draw 24% | Cracovia Krakow 23%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 68%, Cracovia Krakow 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lech Poznan's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.