Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wisla Krakow make the trip to Chorten Arena to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 March 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia at Chorten Arena this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Chorten Arena this season.
Wisla Krakow (all games): 3W 2D 2L across 7 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.57 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.86 per game and conceding 1.57. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.57 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Jagiellonia. A 0.63 PPG lead over Wisla Krakow (2.20 vs 1.57) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Wisla Krakow in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jagiellonia lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Wisla Krakow — key trading statistics (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 57% and Wisla Krakow 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 57% | Wisla Krakow 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.69 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.883 / defence 0.969 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.045 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.280. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Jagiellonia games / 7 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 43% | Draw 30% | Wisla Krakow 26%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Wisla Krakow 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 60% | Wisla Krakow 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 43% | Draw 30% | Wisla Krakow 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 63% | xG Jagiellonia 1.69 / Wisla Krakow 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.883 / def 0.969 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.045 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Wisla Krakow xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Chorten Arena.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 43% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow?
Record (2 meetings): Jagiellonia 1W | Draws 1 | Wisla Krakow 0W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Wisla Krakow's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Wisla Krakow's attack (1.04x) against Jagiellonia's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 39/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
43%
2.30
30%
3.28
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.99
1.30
Wisla Krakow xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
5%
20.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.30 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 5W 0D 2L from 7 games, a 2.14 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 2L across 7 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jagiellonia by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wisla Krakow heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Krakow's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Krakow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.86 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Early Season
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 5W 0D 2L in their last 7 games (2.14 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.25 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Jagiellonia
1
Draws
0
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 1, Wisla Krakow have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when Wisla Krakow 0-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 25%, Wisla Krakow 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Jagiellonia) and 75% (Wisla Krakow).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Jagiellonia's games and 100% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 75% of Wisla Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.