Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce meet at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 May 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Gornik Zabrze (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Gornik Zabrze have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla than their overall form suggests.
Korona Kielce have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Korona Kielce away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.50 for Korona Kielce. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Gornik Zabrze have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Korona Kielce managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 4–2 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Gornik Zabrze and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 51% versus Korona Kielce 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 46% | Korona Kielce 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.40 xG and Korona Kielce 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.915 / defence 0.790 | Korona Kielce attack 0.895 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.243. Gornik Zabrze's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Gornik Zabrze games / 67 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 49% | Draw 28% | Korona Kielce 23%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Korona Kielce 4.35. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gornik Zabrze are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Gornik Zabrze 40% | Korona Kielce 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 49% | Draw 28% | Korona Kielce 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.40 / Korona Kielce 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.915 / def 0.790 | Korona Kielce attack 0.895 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Korona Kielce xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce?
Gornik Zabrze 1 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 49% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce?
Record (5 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 4W | Draws 1 | Korona Kielce 0W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Korona Kielce (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gornik Zabrze's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.90x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.63
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.28
0.88
Korona Kielce xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
6%
17.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.88 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gornik Zabrze's recent record stands at 28W 15D 24L from 67 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Korona Kielce, meanwhile, have gone 19W 25D 23L across 67 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.22 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gornik Zabrze have managed 17W 8D 8L from 33 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Korona Kielce's away record stands at 5W 14D 14L across 33 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.13 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Current Season
Korona Kielce
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 28W 15D 24L in their last 67 games (1.48 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 19W 25D 23L in their last 67 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Korona Kielce away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.79 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
0
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce?
From 8 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, Korona Kielce have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 1-0 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 42%, Korona Kielce 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Gornik Zabrze) and 36% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 27% of games; Korona Kielce in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Korona Kielce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 58% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 36% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce finished level at 1-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.40 xG and Korona Kielce 0.88 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.92 / defence 0.79 against Korona Kielce attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 49% | Draw 28% | Korona Kielce 23%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 46%, Korona Kielce 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.48 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.