GKS Katowice 3-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates GKS Katowice at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion miejski w Katowicach to face GKS Katowice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 29 August 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GKS Katowice have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. GKS Katowice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, GKS Katowice have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion miejski w Katowicach — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — GKS Katowice are significantly better at Stadion miejski w Katowicach than their overall form suggests.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for GKS Katowice against 1.30 for Radomiak Radom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — GKS Katowice register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Radomiak Radom in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — GKS Katowice lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
GKS Katowice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — GKS Katowice 52% and Radomiak Radom 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GKS Katowice 62% | Radomiak Radom 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GKS Katowice 2.04 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GKS Katowice attack 1.137 / defence 1.068 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.922 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.204. Data: 40 GKS Katowice games / 40 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GKS Katowice 57% | Draw 21% | Radomiak Radom 22%. Fair-value odds: GKS Katowice 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Radomiak Radom 4.55. The model has a clear lean to GKS Katowice (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GKS Katowice at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GKS Katowice 70% | Radomiak Radom 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion miejski w Katowicach • Kick-off: Friday 29 Aug 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GKS Katowice 57% | Draw 21% | Radomiak Radom 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG GKS Katowice 2.04 / Radomiak Radom 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: GKS Katowice attack 1.137 / def 1.068 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.922 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: GKS Katowice (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
GKS Katowice xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Radomiak Radom xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 29 August 2025 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach.
What was the final score in GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?
GKS Katowice 3 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion miejski w Katowicach.
What competition is GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom part of?
GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives GKS Katowice a 57% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making GKS Katowice the favourite.
Will both teams score in GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom?
Record (2 meetings): GKS Katowice 0W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom in?
GKS Katowice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
GKS Katowice's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.92x) against GKS Katowice's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GKS Katowice Win
57%
1.75
21%
4.66
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
GKS Katowice xG
Total xG
3.23
1.19
Radomiak Radom xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
13%
7.71
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
3%
35.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for GKS Katowice and 1.19 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GKS Katowice come into this having played 40 games, going 15W 8D 17L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for GKS Katowice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.23 PPG from 40 outings (13W 10D 17L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for GKS Katowice against 1.23 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
GKS Katowice's home form reads 9W 6D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — GKS Katowice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (5W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GKS Katowice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GKS Katowice are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.48 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 70%.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GKS Katowice
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
GKS Katowice have gone 15W 8D 17L in their last 40 games (1.32 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 10D 17L in their last 40 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GKS Katowice at home or Radomiak Radom away?
GKS Katowice's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GKS Katowice at home: 1.74 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: GKS Katowice have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GKS Katowice have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
GKS Katowice
1
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom?
From 5 meetings on record, GKS Katowice have won 3, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when GKS Katowice 3-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom?
GKS Katowice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GKS Katowice 58%, Radomiak Radom 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for GKS Katowice and 68% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GKS Katowice keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; GKS Katowice have failed to score in 26% of games; Radomiak Radom in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GKS Katowice home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GKS Katowice play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of GKS Katowice's games and 63% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of GKS Katowice's matches and 68% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
GKS Katowice have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GKS Katowice edge out Radomiak Radom 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GKS Katowice beat Radomiak Radom 3-2 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 2.04 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.19 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. GKS Katowice beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.92 / defence 1.12, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 57% | Draw 21% | Radomiak Radom 22%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 62%, Radomiak Radom 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GKS Katowice's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.32 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.