Viking 3-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Viking face Ham-Kam.

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Full Analysis

SR-Bank Arena plays host to Viking versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien (matchday 10). Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Viking have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Viking's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Viking are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Ham-Kam's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Viking, 1.10 for Ham-Kam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Viking's last 10 home games and Ham-Kam's last 10 away games) — Viking have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Ham-Kam in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Viking edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Viking 0–3 Ham-Kam — a Ham-Kam win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Viking half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 68% and Ham-Kam 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 63% | Ham-Kam 57%). Note also that Ham-Kam surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Viking recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.28 xG and Ham-Kam 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.049 / defence 1.070 | Ham-Kam attack 1.042 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.528. Data: built from Viking's last 39 games and Ham-Kam's last 40.

Result probabilities: Viking 29% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 47%. Fair-value odds: Viking 3.47 | Draw 4.21 | Ham-Kam 2.11. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Viking's last 10 home games and Ham-Kam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Viking 80% (last 10 home games) | Ham-Kam 60% (last 10 away games).

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