Fredrikstad 0-0 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Nye Fredrikstad Stadion to face Fredrikstad in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tromso's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Tromso have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.79 xG and Tromso 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 1.079 / defence 0.956 | Tromso attack 0.731 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.545. Tromso bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Fredrikstad's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Fredrikstad games / 38 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 54% | Draw 23% | Tromso 23%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Tromso 4.35. Fredrikstad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Nye Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 54% | Draw 23% | Tromso 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Fredrikstad 1.79 / Tromso 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 1.079 / def 0.956 | Tromso attack 0.731 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.545 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Tromso xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Tromso kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Tromso kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Fredrikstad 0 - 0 Tromso.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Tromso part of?
Fredrikstad vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 54% chance of winning, Tromso a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fredrikstad and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Tromso?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fredrikstad and Tromso in?
Tromso (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Tromso away split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (1.08) and Tromso's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.73x) against Fredrikstad's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 9/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.31
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.87
1.08
Tromso xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
4%
26.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.08 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
Tromso
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won 4-0 on 15 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
3
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Tromso?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 0, Tromso have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Tromso 4-0 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Fredrikstad's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad and Tromso finished level at 0-0 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.79 xG and Tromso 1.08 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fredrikstad fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Tromso landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 1.08 / defence 0.96 against Tromso attack 0.73 / defence 1.26, drawn from 9/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 54% | Draw 23% | Tromso 23%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.