Tromso 3-0 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Tromso face Fredrikstad.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Romssa Arena plays host to Tromso versus Fredrikstad in Eliteserien (matchday 18). Kick-off: Wednesday 29 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Tromso's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Tromso's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 25 May 2024, ended Tromso 0–0 Fredrikstad — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.16 xG and Fredrikstad 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.172 / defence 1.133 | Fredrikstad attack 1.189 / defence 0.750. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.534. Fredrikstad bring a tight defence (rating 0.750, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Tromso's projected output down. Data: built from Tromso's last 39 games and Fredrikstad's last 10.
Result probabilities: Tromso 21% | Draw 21% | Fredrikstad 58%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 4.79 | Draw 4.77 | Fredrikstad 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.16 / 2.07) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 18 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 21% | Draw 21% | Fredrikstad 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Tromso 1.16 / Fredrikstad 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 1.172 / def 1.133 | Fredrikstad attack 1.189 / def 0.750 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Fredrikstad xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tromso vs Fredrikstad FAQs
What time does Tromso vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Tromso vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Wednesday 29 May 2024 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Tromso 3 - 0 Fredrikstad.
Where is Tromso vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Fredrikstad part of?
Tromso vs Fredrikstad is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 18) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 21% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Tromso and Fredrikstad will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tromso vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Tromso's attack at 1.17x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (1.19x) against Tromso's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 2.07.
These ratings are built from Tromso's last 39 games and Fredrikstad's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
21%
4.79
21%
4.77
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.23
2.07
Fredrikstad xG
4.79
21%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
13%
7.90
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
3%
37.84
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tromso vs Fredrikstad Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Tromso and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Tromso and 2.07 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Pre-Season
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Tromso (Home) vs Fredrikstad (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tromso
Pre-Season
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won Tromso 4-0 Fredrikstad on 15 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Tromso
3
Draws
0
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Tromso vs Fredrikstad H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Fredrikstad?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Tromso have won 3, Fredrikstad have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Fredrikstad last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Fredrikstad 1-1 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Fredrikstad?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Tromso run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fredrikstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Fredrikstad 3-0 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.16 xG and Fredrikstad 2.07 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Tromso beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fredrikstad landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.17 / defence 1.13 against Fredrikstad attack 1.19 / defence 0.75, drawn from 39/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 21% | Draw 21% | Fredrikstad 58%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Tromso win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.