Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stabaek face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt meet at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Nadderud Stadion this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Stabaek 0W, Bodo/Glimt 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2021, ended 1–4 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stabaek — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 56% versus Bodo/Glimt 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 60% | Bodo/Glimt 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.10 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.830 / defence 1.296 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.022 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.819 / away 1.238. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.730 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Stabaek games / 45 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 23% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 47%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Bodo/Glimt 2.13. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Stabaek 50% | Bodo/Glimt 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 23% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Stabaek 1.10 / Bodo/Glimt 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.830 / def 1.296 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.022 / def 0.730 | league avg home 1.819 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Bodo/Glimt xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
Where is Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 23% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (3 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 1 | Bodo/Glimt 2W.
What form are Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt in?
Stabaek (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.83) and Bodo/Glimt's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.02x) against Stabaek's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
23%
4.35
30%
3.37
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.74
1.64
Bodo/Glimt xG
4.35
23%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
4%
22.43
16%
6.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.64 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 12W 15D 18L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 34W 7D 4L from 45 games, 2.42 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 1.29 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.27 PPG from 22 outings (7W 7D 8L).
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 14W 5D 3L from 22 away games — 2.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stabaek are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.96 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 12W 15D 18L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 34W 7D 4L in their last 45 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.27 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Stabaek
1
Draws
5
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2023, when Stabaek 0-4 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 41%, Bodo/Glimt 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stabaek) and 73% (Bodo/Glimt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Bodo/Glimt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Stabaek's recent matches and 68% of Bodo/Glimt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Stabaek's matches and 73% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stabaek's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 20, as Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.10 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.64 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.83 / defence 1.30 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.02 / defence 0.73, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 23% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 47%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 60%, Bodo/Glimt 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.