Kristiansund BK 5-1 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kristiansund BK at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Stabaek travel to Kristiansund Stadion to take on Kristiansund BK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kristiansund BK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kristiansund BK have posted 7W 1D 2L at Kristiansund Stadion — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Kristiansund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stabaek stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Kristiansund BK are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kristiansund BK, 1 for Stabaek and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2020, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Stabaek in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 66% and Stabaek 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 57% | Stabaek 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.73 xG and Stabaek 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.932 / defence 0.843 | Stabaek attack 1.128 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.242. Data: 44 Kristiansund BK games / 44 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 48% | Draw 29% | Stabaek 23%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Stabaek 4.35. Kristiansund BK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kristiansund BK at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 50% | Stabaek 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 48% | Draw 29% | Stabaek 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.73 / Stabaek 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.932 / def 0.843 | Stabaek attack 1.128 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Stabaek xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek?
Kristiansund BK 5 - 1 Stabaek.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 48% chance of winning, Stabaek a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Stabaek?
Record (2 meetings): Kristiansund BK 0W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 1W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Stabaek in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Stabaek (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kristiansund BK's attack rating (0.93) and Stabaek's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.43
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.91
1.18
Stabaek xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
4%
24.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.18 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Kristiansund BK have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 19W 14D 11L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek's form line: 12W 15D 17L from 44 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kristiansund BK are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kristiansund BK have posted 1.86 PPG from 22 outings (12W 5D 5L).
On the road, Stabaek have gone 5W 8D 9L from 22 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.36 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 19W 14D 11L in their last 44 games (1.61 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 12W 15D 17L in their last 44 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Stabaek away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.86 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Kristiansund BK won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Kristiansund BK
1
Draws
2
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Stabaek?
From 4 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Stabaek have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2021, when Stabaek 3-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Stabaek?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kristiansund BK at 64%, Stabaek at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Kristiansund BK and 73% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Kristiansund BK's games and 68% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 73% of Stabaek's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Stabaek tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kristiansund BK run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Stabaek 5-1 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.73 xG and Stabaek 1.18 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Kristiansund BK beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.93 / defence 0.84 against Stabaek attack 1.13 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 48% | Draw 29% | Stabaek 23%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 57%, Stabaek 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Stabaek's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kristiansund BK arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Stabaek (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.